The silent response is the pattern now. When Iran first closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March, Brent crude surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time in four years and then hit a high near $120, and bitcoin sold off sharply on each rally.
Part of that is time. Oil, stocks and bonds are closed for the weekend, so bitcoin is the only major market open to pricing strikes in real time, treating them as something close to a non-event.
The fuller reaction among assets, especially in crude oil, may not appear until Monday. About a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes through Hormuz, and Brent had already carried a risk premium over the weekend after tanker traffic through the strait remained below normal.
However, the real test will come on Monday, if crude oil reopens with a sharp gap higher while bitcoin holds firm. A calmer oil opening would say that the closure of the strait is being interpreted as a threat that Tehran has made and backed down before.
