Gas prices in Canada are expected to start rising again as all progress towards a peace deal between the United States and Iran appears to fall apart.
Consumers should expect to “dig a little deeper” into their wallets, according to one gas price expert.
“A rude slap in the face as the work week begins is that the trade deal is no longer on the table, and we’re at it again. Ground zero begins again, and the United States is no closer to a peace deal than it was a week and a half ago,” says GasBuddy oil analyst Patrick De Haan.
Global oil markets have been rising since shipping traffic came to a virtual halt in the Strait of Hormuz when the conflict began in late February.
Consumer gasoline prices saw some relief in recent weeks as a peace deal was reportedly being negotiated, raising hopes that oil shipments could begin flowing again through the strait and provide significant relief.
But that price relief may have been short-lived.
“If there is no agreement, probably every day that this happens we will be worse than a week and a half ago, when it seemed that an agreement was just around the corner,” says De Haan.
“So motorists will have to dig a little deeper this week.”
Related videos
On May 29, US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz “will now be lifted,” contingent on Iran accepting the terms of a peace deal.
Receive the latest national news
Get the latest Canadian news delivered to your inbox as it happens so you don’t miss any breaking news.
The CAA says the national average for regular quality gasoline currently stands at around C$1.69 per liter at the time of publication. That’s down from $1.81 the week before and $1.90 on May 6.
But on Monday, the United States said it had struck several targets in Tehran, and Iran responded by striking targets in the region, where Kuwait reported incoming fire.
Iranian state television later shared footage of the ballistic missile launch, including a close-up showing a sticker on its body depicting a bruised US President Donald Trump superimposed on a “closed” Hormuz strait with the caption: “Until the last US soldier leaves the region.”
Oil prices have risen in response.
At the time of this publication, US crude oil, known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was around $94 per barrel, up about nine percent from $86 on May 29.
“Oil prices had fallen precipitously in recent weeks as US President Trump said a deal could be close and imminent,” says De Haan.
“But then over the weekend, Iran decided to withdraw, highlighting new Israeli attacks on Lebanon and oil prices are returning to where they were before all the hopes and dreams about a US-Iran deal.”
Higher crude oil prices almost always result in more expensive gasoline for consumers.
So how much more should Canadians expect to pay?
De Haan says Canadians should expect gas prices to rise between five and 15 cents per liter in the coming days and weeks, depending on the particular region. He adds that diesel prices may take longer to respond to these recent developments.
Longer term, De Haan says frustration is rising in both consumers and global markets, not only because of geopolitical tensions, but also because of the uncertainty of when, if ever, the conflict might ease.
“This is very much the boy who cried wolf, the president who declared a deal and each of the three times this has happened, we haven’t seen any of that,” he says.
“That could come back to haunt the president, especially in the coming months, as many in the Republican Party, his own party, are increasingly concerned about the prospects of the midterm elections and high gas prices that could still reach record levels this summer.”
–with an Associated Press file
© 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
