Sign of the week: Long-term holders now have 45% of their supply (7.47 million BTC) at a loss, the worst result for this cohort since 2019. Their realized profit-loss ratio also hit its lowest point since the March 2023 US banking crisis.
Six months into the year, the group that has been absorbing almost every wave of selling pressure is showing cracks. Long-term holders began selling weakly this week, not greatly, but for the first time in months.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it is severe enough to shake confidence in the direction of the market. It combines on-chain holder behavior, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants do rather than what they say.
Scoring bands:
- Normal rotation (0–24) — routine profit taking, without structural change
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups changing position, uneven pressure across the market
- High impact (50–74) — widespread tension between multiple groups of holders and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Hit (75–100) — total capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations and strong currency inflows at the same time
Week 26 (June 22 to 28): BII 66.2: high impact
Negative signals: long-term holders crossed an important line
For the first time in 4 months, the supply of long-term holders actually decreased weekly, at approximately 3,000 BTC. The number itself may be relatively small, but the direction matters. After months of constant accumulation and transition from STH to LTH, the sales made exceeded the accumulation efforts.
For the most part, long-term holders were selling on weakness. Its realized losses increased by 65% in BTC terms over the week and exceeded realized gains by almost three times. As a result, its realized profit-loss (P/L) ratio is now at an all-time high. worst level since US banking crisis in March 2023.
This significantly affected the supply split of long-term holders. 55% of Bitcoin’s long-term holder is still making profits, while 45% (approximately 7.47 million BTC) is now underwater. This is the largest proportion of long-term fork supply losses since 2019.. For a group that has spent the year absorbing almost every wave of selling pressure from everyone else, this is the first real sign that its own conviction is being tested.
Negative signs: institutional and derivatives tension deepened markedly
ETF outflows reached $1.79 billion, the second-largest weekly outflow in history. This indicates that investors took a stronger risk-off stance amid the AI sell-off and end-of-quarter rebalancing. Short-term holders also weakened further, with their realized P/Ls falling below –0.84.
Long liquidations accounted for 80% of total liquidations, continuing the pattern of leveraged bulls bearing the brunt of forced closures. The daily volume of total settlements almost doubled from the previous week.
What could happen next?
From a technical analysis perspective, there is an interesting tension. Bitcoin is showing bullish divergence on both the RSI and MACD on daily and weekly time frames, a pattern that has historically preceded broader rallies. At the same time, the MACD on both time frames is at or near a bearish crossover. This suggests that the market could see further declines before the bullish divergence potentially leads to a recovery.
The 200-week SMA near $62,500 is the level that matters most right now. The shorter time frames suggest that Bitcoin is likely to test it again soon. If the bulls take it back and hold above it, $66,000 becomes the next target. If they fail, history offers a warning. In 2022, Bitcoin also failed to recapture the 200-week SMA in a similar situation, and this extended the bear market several months before the final bottom formed. If that pattern repeats, the next major support level is around $54,000.
The level to watch most closely remains $62,000. A sustained break below would test whether the “coil spring” reading is correct or whether the deterioration of the LTH SOPR is the more important signal after all.
The web content provided by CEX.IO is for educational purposes only. The information and tools provided are not and should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any digital asset or to open a particular account or engage in a specific investment strategy. Digital asset markets are very volatile and can lead to loss of funds.
The availability of products, features and services on the CEX.IO platform is subject to jurisdictional limitations. To understand what products and services are available in your region, please see our list of supported countries and territories. This page includes additional links to information about individual products and their accessibility.
