Sign of the week: The amount of Bitcoin with unrealized losses briefly exceeded 10 million BTC, reaching levels comparable to the depths of the bear market bottoms of 2018 and 2022. In the previous two cycles, this milestone appeared near the cycle low, although not always exactly at the bottom itself.
Bitcoin markets have stabilized after one of the most stressful weeks in years. Liquidations fell to their lowest levels of 2026, foreign exchange inflows halved, and ETF outflows slowed significantly. But the underlying picture has not healed and half of the Bitcoin supply is still at a loss. Bitcoin continues to trade in territory that has previously marked major lows, but it may still be too early to conclude that it has already bottomed.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it is severe enough to shake confidence in the direction of the market. It combines on-chain holder behavior, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants do rather than what they say.
Scoring bands:
- Normal rotation (0–24) — routine profit taking, without structural change
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups changing position, uneven pressure across the market
- High impact (50–74) — widespread tension between multiple groups of holders and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Hit (75–100) — total capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations and strong currency inflows at the same time
Week 24 (June 8-14): BII-W 46.2: Elevated Repositioning
Positive signs: acute pressure released
Settlements collapsed from a daily average of $205 million last week to just $36.6 million. When forced selling runs out, it removes a major source of downward pressure that can accelerate declines. At the same time, the proportion of long liquidations normalized to 43%, ending the extended streak of more than 80% long liquidations that characterized the previous three weeks.
Currency inflows also fell sharply, halving to around 21,000 BTC and returning to more typical levels. Weekly ETF outflows also declined, falling to $316 million from $1.7 billion the previous week. Flows remain negative overall, but the pace of sales is nowhere near the historical levels seen in recent weeks, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually easing.
Negative signs: last week’s structural damage persists
The amount of Bitcoin with unrealized losses briefly exceeded 10 million BTC and even reached a new all-time high. in absolute terms. As a result, this metric has now risen to levels comparable to the 2018 and 2022 bear market lows.
Long-term holders’ profit bid (LTH) has also fallen to 57%, approaching the 55% level seen at the 2022 cycle bottom and the 53% level recorded at the 2018 cycle bottom. While this suggests that Bitcoin may already be approaching the bottom of the cycle, the broader weakness across the market indicates that there could still be room for further declines.
LTH SOPR rose only slightly to 0.79, showing that long-term holders who are selling continue to do so at significant losses. Meanwhile, the density of realized losses changed little from the previous week. In other words, the losses have not been recovered significantly. The main difference is that fewer investors are selling right now.which provides temporary relief but is generally a less reliable signal than a real improvement in profitability.
Mixed signals: LTH supply is increasing, but mainly due to aging coins
LTH supply increased by 107,000 BTC this week. However, most of that increase appears to be a result of short-term holder (STH) coins aging into the long-term holder category rather than fresh accumulation by investors.
A good example is the group of 6 month to 1 year starters. This pool recently became the largest supply pool and represents 18% of the Bitcoin in circulation.. Just three months ago it represented only 11% of the supply.
Notably, the previous cycle lows were formed when the cohort of 1-2 year holders became the dominant group. That cohort currently represents 13% of the circulating supply and continues to grow. While it has not yet become the largest cohort, the trend remains consistent with historical bottoming patterns.
What could happen next?
The most immediate scenario seems to be consolidation. Bitcoin Daily Shake Index Recently Dropped to Its Lowest Level Since October 2023 before bouncing. Historically, similar moves have often been followed by periods of range-bound price action.
At the same time, the daily MACD is forming a bullish crossover, a signal that is generally consistent with a short-term stabilization or a modest recovery. For now, the $65,000 and $71,000 levels appear to be the most likely resistance zones for the bulls.
On the downside, the 200-week SMA near $62,000 remains the key structural support level. A sustained break below $62,000 could open the way towards $54,000, where Bitcoin’s realized price currently sits. The realized price represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation and has historically been surpassed only very close to major bear market lows.
As a result, the most likely near-term outcome remains sideways trading within a relatively tight range as the market adjusts to new price levels. The direction of the next big breakout will likely depend on whether institutional flows and stablecoin liquidity begin to reverse course.
The web content provided by CEX.IO is for educational purposes only. The information and tools provided are not and should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any digital asset or to open a particular account or engage in a specific investment strategy. Digital asset markets are very volatile and can lead to loss of funds.
The availability of products, features and services on the CEX.IO platform is subject to jurisdictional limitations. To understand what products and services are available in your region, please see our list of supported countries and territories. This page includes additional links to information about individual products and their accessibility.
