Sign of the week: The proportion of short-term holder supply generating profits recently reached 71%, the highest level since Bitcoin’s all-time high in October 2025. Although this sounds optimistic, history suggests that the need to take profits is also increasing.
Bitcoin hovers around $80,000, giving short-term holders their best week in months in terms of P/L. However, this is also the exact line that will decide whether this is a genuine breakup or just another failed attempt.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it is severe enough to shake confidence in the direction of the market. It combines on-chain holder behavior, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants do rather than what they say.
Scoring bands:
- Normal rotation (0–24) — routine profit taking, without structural change
- Elevated repositioning (25–49) — specific groups changing position, uneven pressure across the market
- High impact (50–74) — widespread tension between multiple groups of holders and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Hit (75–100) — total capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations and strong currency inflows at the same time
Week 19 (May 4-10): BII 35.6: High Repositioning
Positive signs: Cleaner liquidity outlook in 2026
Stablecoin flows balanced from –$242 million daily average last week to +$270 million – largest reversal in a single week in 2026 and the stablecoin’s strongest positive reading since March. Fresh capital arrives again on the stock exchanges and is positioned to buy, which supports the bullish momentum.
At the same time, realized loss density plummeted to 13%, one of the lowest readings in 2026. This indicates that holders selling are doing so primarily at or near breakeven, not at distressed levels.
Mixed signals: Short-term holders are at a decision point
The proportion of short-term holders’ supply that generates profits was briefly affected 71% — the highest level since Bitcoin’s all-time high in October 2025. At first glance, this is great news. But it also means that the pressure to make profits is increasing at its fastest pace since the market’s peak. Profit volumes are relatively stable at the moment, meaning holders are not rushing to exit yet, but the incentive to lock in profits is increasing.
LTH SOPR fell back below 1, meaning long-term holders who moved coins this week did so at a small loss. However, long-term holders also added another 83,000 BTC to their wallets this week, suggesting this could be associated with a higher cost of accumulation.
What could happen next?
Bitcoin is currently testing its cost base for the short-term holder around $80,000, the price at which the average recent buyer turns from losses to profits. If Bitcoin holds above that level, this could push the price towards $85,750, which corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high.
If the price also breaks above $85,750, it would invalidate the bearish retracement pattern that developed in January, when Bitcoin recovered to the 0.382 Fibonacci level before resuming its decline.
However, if the price fails to hold $80,000 and pulls back, the next significant support lies at $76,250, which corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. That scenario would suggest that short-term holders end up using current prices as an opportunity to lock in profits.
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