In today’s
The setup looks clean. The institutional money flow behind this is not like that. That gap between the chart structure and the capital behind it is the central tension shaping XRP trading right now.
According to data from glass coinMonthly XRP spot ETF inflows have plummeted from a high of $131.94 million in May to just $12.43 million in July, the weakest month on record. Capital inflows remain technically positive, but it is not a technical detail worth overlooking.
XRP News: The Cup and Handle Setup and What It Means
Since early July, XRP has formed a cup and handle pattern on the daily chart. The cup represents a gradual recovery of selling pressure, while the handle reflects a consolidation phase since July 21.
The bullish outlook remains supported by declining sales volume as prices decline, indicating a pause rather than a new wave of selling. Key resistance is at $1.15, lining up with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
A daily close above this would break the hold and trigger the cup neckline at $1.16, with $1.18 and $1.21 as potential targets for XRP Ripple.
However, it is important to note that XRP has previously failed to maintain cup formations. A single candle wick above $1.15 is insufficient; A confirmed daily close is necessary for a convincing breakout.
Say what you want, but this whole setup seems crazy!
Sweep the minimums or not…
An important movement is coming. pic.twitter.com/MJFD9UJNzh
-Jim Knox (@Jim_Knox589) July 23, 2026
ETF Inputs: Green on the Surface, Fading into the Background
In other XRP news, ETF inflows have been consistently positive since its launch, although monthly totals have declined. According glass coinreceipts were $81.59 million in April, peaked at $131.94 million in May, then fell to $59.46 million in June and fell further to $12.43 million in July.
This downward trend suggests that institutional demand for XRP has weakened as ETF inflows typically signal interest from professional buyers, making it a crucial data point to watch in the coming weeks.
A decrease in these flows could affect the price of XRP, especially as it approaches a breakout point. Similar patterns of reduced institutional demand are also seen in Bitcoin ETF products.
What Glassnode’s Hodler Metric Indicates
Hodler’s net position change metric glass node tracks whether long-term XRP holders are netly adding or trimming their positions. It is an on-chain measure of accumulation or distribution behavior among wallets that have been held for long periods, the cohort least likely to be driven by short-term noise.
It’s worth keeping a close eye on the metric’s recent history because you’ve already run this playbook once. On June 22, Hodler’s net position change reached one of its highest readings. From that peak, it fell steadily until July 1st.
Exactly during that window, XRP price corrected from $1.13 to $1.05, a 7% move that surprised many traders who were looking at the chart setup rather than the on-chain signal. Then, when long-term holders started adding again, the price recovered.
Since July 19, the metric has dropped again. It has decreased from approximately 231 million to approximately 226 million XRP, according to Glassnode data cited in BeInCrypto’s analysis. The setup is close enough to the June precedent to merit attention.
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Three scenarios for what happens next: XRP news catalysts needed for bullish continuation
The XRP news chart and institutional data indicate three potential paths for price action:
Bull case: XRP closes above $1.15, confirming a cup and handle breakout. Breaking above the $1.16 level could reach the $1.21 target, but this would require stable ETF inflows to maintain the gains.
Base case: XRP is trading sideways between $1.12 and $1.15 as net Hodler position change declines and ETF inflows remain weak. The cup and handle pattern remains valid but unconfirmed, awaiting a macrocatalyst.
Bear case: A steeper decline in Hodler metrics leads to a drop below $1.13, exposing support levels at $1.12 and $1.09. A break below $1.05 invalidates the pattern and shifts attention to broader support. This scenario aligns with current ETF flow trends.
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