Sign of the week: The amount of Bitcoin with losses barely exceeded the amount of profits for the first time since November 2022. In previous cycles, Bitcoin bottomed the cycle within three months of this crossover. In some cases, it happened right when it happened.
Bitcoin briefly touched $58,000 but then saw a price recovery, supported by LTH accumulation and easing selling pressure. The most important development is that the landscape is starting to look less like a market that is collapsing and more like one that is approaching an inflection point.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it is severe enough to shake confidence in the direction of the market. It combines on-chain holder behavior, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants do rather than what they say.
Scoring bands:
- Normal rotation (0–24) — routine profit taking, without structural change
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups changing position, uneven pressure across the market
- High impact (50–74) — widespread tension between multiple groups of holders and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Hit (75–100) — total capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations and strong currency inflows at the same time
Week 27 (June 29 – July 5): BII 47.0 – High Repositioning
Positive signs: Long-term holders showed one of their most dramatic improvements in 2026
LTH SOPR, a metric that measures whether long-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or loss, rallied from 0.676 to 0.939 in a single week, showing the largest positive weekly move since mid-March. This type of acute and rapid recovery Historically it has been associated with the early stages of a trend change..
The total LTH supply also decreased by approximately 10,000 BTC this week. But unlike last week’s selling-on-weakness behavior, this drawdown came as Bitcoin price recovered. Historically, this type of LTH to STH transition appeared in the early stages of major Bitcoin rallies and typically signaled renewed accumulation. However, it is still too early to consider it a trend. It would take a few more weeks of similar behavior to confirm this, but the direction has clearly changed.
The older, dormant coins also began to move again. Reactivated supply of six months or more increased to its highest level since February, and the realized value of that reactivated supply reached its highest level since December 2025. In simple terms: holders who had been completely inactive during the bear market are beginning to interact with the market again. This is also a sign of broader participation that typically accompanies recovery phases.
Short-term holders also improved significantly, with realized P/L recovering from –0.832 to –0.038, almost returning to breakeven. Recent buyers who just a week ago were deep in the water are now experiencing much less stress.
Negative signs: Stress is decreasing but has not gone away
ETF outflows continued for the eighth consecutive week with -$527 million. While this is a notable improvement from last week, the streak itself is important as it indicates a sustained pullback in exposure. Stablecoin outflows also intensified slightly to a daily average of -$147 million, meaning new purchasing capital continues to flow out rather than accumulate.
Long liquidations remained elevated at 73.5% of total liquidations, although total liquidation volume fell to $128 million from $189 million 7-day SMA. The leverage flow has not yet been fully completed.
Contradictory signals: Bitcoin crossed the line that has historically marked the final stage of bear markets
There are currently more Bitcoin with unrealized losses than with profits – 10.1 million coins underwater vs. 9.9 million profit. This is the first time this crossover has occurred since the week of the FTX crash in November 2022. Historically, the cycle bottom occurred less than 3 months from this signal. In some cases it hit rock bottom almost immediately.
That doesn’t mean we’ve already hit rock bottom. The same metrics gradually moved closer in the previous two cycles, with Bitcoin reaching lower lows after hitting this zone in 2014, 2018, and 2022 before finally bottoming out. But from a cyclical positioning perspective, the data places this moment in a historically specific context: not in the middle of a bear market, but in the final stage.
What could happen next?
The threatened MACD bearish crossover on the daily chart failed to materialize, and both the RSI and MACD are now showing bullish divergences on the daily and weekly time frames. Breakeven volume also shows similar divergences, suggesting improvements in the underlying volume profile consistent with broader recovery phases. This is a typical weakening setup of downward pressure, which could transition into a broader upward move.
The 200-week SMA near $62,500 is the key test right now, and Bitcoin is already challenging it. If the bulls can push ahead and hold above it, the next major target is the short-term fork cost base near $68,000. Crossing that level would return most recent buyers to profit and remove a persistent source of overall selling pressure.
If the 200-week SMA holds as resistance rather than support, $58,000 and then $54,000 remain the levels to watch on the downside. The $54,000 zone is near the realized price of Bitcoin and the aggregate cost basis of all circulating supply, which has historically only been broken very close to the final bear market lows.
The greased spring reading is correct, or if deterioration of the LTH SOPR is the most important signal after all.
The web content provided by CEX.IO is for educational purposes only. The information and tools provided are not and should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any digital asset or to open a particular account or engage in a specific investment strategy. Digital asset markets are very volatile and can lead to loss of funds.
The availability of products, features and services on the CEX.IO platform is subject to jurisdictional limitations. To understand what products and services are available in your region, please see our list of supported countries and territories. This page includes additional links to information about individual products and their accessibility.
