Sign of the week: Bitcoin’s Coinday NVT and RVT indices, which measure whether the price has outpaced actual network usage, hit their highest readings since December 2023. Historically, similar increases preceded a major slowdown in the uptrend or a transition to a downtrend.
Both short-term and long-term holders are making profits and selling pressure has decreased significantly. However, several indicators outside of holder behavior are starting to give warning signs and, historically, this tends to happen just before the easiest phase of a rally ends.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it is severe enough to shake confidence in the direction of the market. It combines on-chain holder behavior, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants do rather than what they say.
Scoring bands:
- Normal rotation (0–24) — routine profit taking, without structural change
- Elevated repositioning (25–49) — specific groups changing position, uneven pressure across the market
- High impact (50–74) — widespread tension between multiple groups of holders and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Hit (75–100) — total capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations and strong currency inflows at the same time
Week 18 (April 27 – May 3): BII 30.2 – Elevated Repositioning
The value of the index fell to one of its lowest levels, as the current picture of holders is one of the best in 2026. However, there are still signs that a possible bull trap may occur.
Positive signs: Holders are the least stressed they have been in 2026
As Bitcoin surpassed $80,000, both short-term and long-term holders largely made gains, with The profitability of short-term holders is near 2026 highs.. The long-term SOPR rose further to 1.51, meaning veterans are selling at a 51% profit margin on average. This suggests that neither group is under significant pressure.
Currency inflows fell to a daily average of 16,570 BTC, now near three-year lows. A similar drop occurred in early April before the price achieved a sustained break above $75,000. As less Bitcoin arrives on exchanges to be sold, bulls currently have less overhead resistance.
Negative signs: multiple warning signs appeared at once
Bitcoin’s Coinday NVT and RVT indices, which measure how expensive Bitcoin appears relative to actual economic activity on its network, recently rose for both. short- and long term holders to its highest levels since December 2023. Think of it as Bitcoin’s price-to-earnings ratio: when these ratios rise, it means the price has moved faster than the underlying usage justifies. Historically, Rapid increases in these metrics have preceded slowdowns in Bitcoin’s upward momentum, which can potentially transition into bearish trends..
On top of that, stablecoins are flowing onto exchanges. balanced from a daily average of +$117 million last week to -$245 million this week, one of the biggest weekly reversals in 2026. This suggests that fresh capital is still leaving the exchanges rather than coming in to buy, meaning the current price level is supported by thin buying.
Mixed signals: accumulation and financing rates calmed
The cost of going short fell this week as funding rates moved from their extreme lows to a less severe level. This is partly positive: the short squeeze pressure that has been building for weeks released some strength. But funding rates remain negative, meaning short sellers are still paying net to hold their positions and bearish conviction has not completely dissipated.
Long-term accumulation calmed after last week’s historic buying spree, with net LTH balances increasing by 52,000 BTC. This is a natural cooldown after a record run, but the tailwind of supply absorption is still in play, which may help the bulls support a bullish move to some level.
What could happen next?
As highlighted in the overview above, Bitcoin’s breakout of $80,000 and the short-term fork’s cost basis would be a real test for the bulls. With the current health of holders and short squeeze dynamics, Bitcoin could still maintain an upward move, but may be limited by declining new demand and stretched valuation metrics.
Elevated NVT and RVT readings also suggest the transition from momentum-driven earnings to a stronger and more uncertain phase where gains could become harder to sustain and any negative catalysts would land harder than in a healthier valuation environment. The current outflow of stablecoins is the most immediate concern: two consecutive weeks of fresh capital outflow instead of inflow would mean that the buyer base is shrinking even as the holder base appears healthy.
As a result, the current bullish momentum still appears fragile, suggesting that a rapid change from bullish to bearish trend remains possible. To support the momentum, bulls would need to sustain the price above $80,000, along with increasing LTH accumulation and/or positive funding rates. Without it, a bearish move could simply be delayed.
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