Ethereum is testing resistance as the market finds some relief. The price is at a decision point. And a CryptoQuant analyst has identified a supply structure beneath that resistance that is unprecedented in the current cycle, and clear in the cycle that preceded it.
Analyst data reveals a 57% collapse in Ethereum exchange supply: reserves have fallen from approximately 35 million ETH to 14.9 million ETH, a reduction that leaves significantly less ETH available for immediate sale than at any comparable time during the 2020-2021 period. The coins have not disappeared. They have come into the custody of holders who do not send them to exchanges to sell.
The influx data confirms the behavioral panorama. Currency inflows have increased recently, but the scale is still dramatically below the peaks of the 2021-2022 cycle, when inflows approached the 10 to 20 million ETH range. The current groups are a fraction of those peaks. The large-scale distribution, which characterized the peak of the previous cycle, is not present in the data.
Ethereum testing resistance with 57% less sellable supply than its previous cycle peak, and without the distribution behavior that accompanied that peak, is a structurally different test. Overhead costs exist. Ammunition to sustain it is historically scarce.
Two signs. A conclusion
the analyst structure It is based on the relationship between two independent data points that are currently moving in a configuration that has historically been important. The first is what has happened to currency reserves: a 57% collapse that has removed most of the immediately available supply of ETH from the market.
The second is what has not happened with currency inflows: the extreme spikes in deposits (between 10 and 20 million ETH) that characterized the 2021-2022 distribution phase have not returned. Holders are not flooding exchanges with ETH to make profits or cut losses at scale.
That combination (supply depleted, distribution absent) describes a market where structural downward pressure has significantly reduced without the structural panic signal that typically accompanies cycle lows at their sharpest point. The market is not experiencing forced selling on a scale that matches previous major lows. You are experiencing tranquility.
The pricing context adds the final dimension. Ethereum is currently moving near the lows of previous correction ranges – the price levels that, in previous cycles, represented the zone where the risk-reward balance shifted in favor of patient capital rather than continuing to sell.
The analyst mentions it carefully: a constructive signal in current conditions. It is not a confirmation. It is not a guarantee. A structural alignment between depleted supply, absent distribution pressure, and historically significant price levels that together describe a market where the conditions for recovery are present even if the catalyst has not yet arrived.
Ethereum Recovers Weekly Pivot as Recovery Testing Structure
Ethereum is trading between $2,350 and $2,400 on the weekly period, reclaiming a key pivot level that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance throughout the current cycle. After the sharp drop in early 2026, ETH recovered from the $1,600 to $1,800 region where strong demand emerged and stopped the decline.
The current structure reflects a market trying to return to equilibrium. The price is now interacting with the 100-week (green) and 200-week (red) moving averages, which are converging near the $2,300 zone. This area represents a critical technical threshold: recovering it suggests stabilization, while a failure would reinforce the broader corrective trend.
The 50-week moving average (blue) is flattening and starting to rise, indicating improving near-term momentum. However, ETH is yet to establish a clear high on the weekly period, keeping the recovery unconfirmed.
Volume patterns remain consistent with a post-capitulation environment. The spike during the sell-off indicates forced liquidations, while the subsequent normalization suggests a reduction in stress but not a strong accumulation.
Structurally, Ethereum is at a decision point. A sustained acceptance above $2,400 would open the way towards $2,800-$3,100, while rejection would likely return the price to the $2,000 support zone.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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