Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss, and the numbers show that it is becoming a pattern, not an anomaly.
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American buyers stay on the sidelines
The Coinbase Premium Bitcoin Index has remained negative in recent weeks, a sign that US investors have largely withdrawn from the market.
According to CryptoQuant, the gap between BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance reflects a broader reluctance among US buyers to pull back to current levels.
That hesitancy manifests itself across multiple data points, from currency flows to the performance of investment products.
Global bitcoin Mutual funds recorded more than $190 million in net outflows during the week ending March 27. Bitcoin spot ETFs, which attracted huge institutional interest during their launch period, are now underwater for many of their holders.
The data shows the average cost basis for the US spot market. Bitcoin ETF Investors are at $83,400, well above the current price.
Bitcoin was changing hands at around $66,820 at the time of this report, about 47% below its all-time high of $126,000, which was set in October 2025. The price is also 24% below its yearly open of $87,600, after BTC closed 2025 in the red.
Almost 9 million BTC held at losses
Nearly 9 million Bitcoin (more than 40% of the total circulating supply) are currently in the hands of investors who paid more than the current price, according to on-chain. data from Glassnode. The combined unrealized loss of that supply amounts to approximately $598 billion.
Glassnode made a comparison to conditions last seen in the second quarter of 2022, one of Bitcoin’s most painful stretches in recent memory. Back then, around 3 million BTC had to change hands before the market regained its footing.
According to reports in Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain newsletter, resolving an oversupply of this size has historically meant coins moving from loss-taking sellers to new buyers willing to enter at lower prices.
Demand, for now, is not keeping pace. Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric recorded a reading of -1,623 BTC on Thursday. That figure has remained negative since mid-December 2025. CryptoQuant described the situation as a broad market distribution, driven by continued selling by retail participants.
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Long-term holders start to go bankrupt
Perhaps the clearest signal from the data involves investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This group, typically seen as the most compromised segment of the market, is now selling at a loss at a high price.
Glassnode reported that realized losses among long-term holders have risen to $200 million, a level the company described as confirmation of an active capitulation.
Featured image of Meta, TradingView chart
