Sign of the week: Bears have been paying an average interest of 11% in April to maintain their bets against Bitcoin, briefly reaching 19%, the highest rate since January 2023. That represented an unprecedented daily premium of more than $4 million. Despite that cost, they still double down.
Long-term holders just made one of the biggest single-week accumulation moves in Bitcoin history. At the same time, short sellers are paying a record price to bet against this buildup. One of these two groups is about to be proven very wrong, which could lead to massive price action.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it is severe enough to shake confidence in the direction of the market. It combines on-chain holder behavior, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants do rather than what they say.
Scoring bands:
- Normal rotation (0–24) — routine profit taking, without structural change
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups changing position, uneven pressure across the market
- High impact (50–74) — widespread tension between multiple groups of holders and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Hit (75–100) — total capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations and strong currency inflows at the same time
Week 17 (April 19-25): BII 39.6: High repositioning
The index rose slightly from last week, remaining firmly in the Elevated Repositioning. The headline figure suggests relative calm. The data below is just the opposite.
Positive signs: long-term holders embarked on a historic buying spree
Long-term holders supposedly added nearly 800,000 BTC in a single week. Your 30-day backlog is now approximately 1.23 million BTC, one of the largest monthly accumulation figures ever recorded. Long-term holders now control 80% of all Bitcoin in existence, the highest proportion since July 2025.
This group that buys so aggressively is important for a reason: They are the ones that historically get the direction right over longer periods of time. LTH SOPR also briefly rebounded above 1, meaning long-term holders who sold this week did so primarily at gains.
Furthermore, the share of LTH supply in profits refused to 66%the lowest level since January 2023. That may sound bad, but in context it means that long-term holders are accumulating while their existing holdings could be underwater, a pattern more consistent with deliberate bottom building than capitulation.
As such, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) improved by close to 0.3, its best level in months. The overall picture of patient, large-scale capital inflows into the market has remained steady for several weeks.
Negative signals: short sellers are going deeper
Here is the contradiction. While long-term holders are buying at one of the fastest rates in history, short sellers are paying extraordinary amounts to maintain the opposite bet. Despite the recovery in prices, financing rates hit a new three-year minimum. Only in April, the bears paid an average of 11% interest in falling shortwith rates briefly soaring to 19%, levels not seen since January 2023.
At those rates, The short sellers were paying collectively More than 4 million dollars every day just for the right to remain positioned against Bitcoin.according to Checkonchain data. That level of conviction and that level of cost is unprecedented, even compared to previous bear markets. Bears believe so much that a significant decline is coming that they are willing to pay a lot for that belief.
Aside from that, realized loss density (how much loss is concentrated per unit of Bitcoin actually moved) jumped to 40%suggesting deeper losses for recent holders. The outlook for short-term holders also softened slightly, as their profitability declined from last week’s level.
Mixed signals: contraction is already happening, but nothing has broken yet
Short liquidations accounted for 77% of total liquidations this week, indicating that a short squeeze is occurring and that the recent price increase was largely due to these forced short closings.
The important context is that there are still many short positions. The bears that were kicked out this week have been replaced by new shorts that doubled at higher prices, as confirmed by the funding rate. This means that the potential for compression has not been exhausted: there is still a significant set of short positions that should be closed if the price continues to rise, which could amplify a bullish move.
However, such a high level of bearish conviction could also lead to a rapid trend reversal if the bullish momentum fades and fails to hold above important resistance levels such as $80,000.
What could happen next?
The tension between these two forces (historical accumulation on the one hand and brief historical conviction on the other) cannot persist indefinitely. Resolution is usually quick and decisive when it arrives.
If the price breaks above $80,000, it would be a real test for the bulls as short-term holders will make profits on average. for the first time from October 2025, and some could take advantage of this opportunity to profit. In January 2026, when the price briefly touched the STH cost base, it turned out to be a local high before a sell-off in February. However, if the price breaks and sustains above $80,000, the remaining shorts could face increasing losses and will be forced to close positions, adding fuel to the move.
One way or another, given the magnitude of the LTH buildup, a true drop to the downside would require something significant to shake the conviction that has been building for three straight months. The index is likely to remain in the upper half of Elevated Repositioning until this is resolved. When this happens, a sudden movement in either direction is likely.
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