Where is BTC headed after falling below $61,000?

Bitcoin remains under heavy selling pressure after falling below multiple key support levels in quick succession. The recent rejection of the descending 200-day moving average triggered a sharp sell-off that invalidated the previous ascending channel structure and pushed BTC back to a major demand zone around $60,000. Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests that market participants are suffering increasing losses, reflecting deteriorating investor sentiment.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has confirmed a major bearish breakout after falling below both the ascending channel and the 100-day moving average near $74,000. The channel had supported the recovery from February lows, but the recent violation indicates that buyers have lost control of the intermediate trend.

The rejection occurred near the confluence of the channel’s upper boundary and the 200-day descending moving average, located around the $82,000 region. Since then, BTC has seen an aggressive decline, breaking through the $74,000 support area and the notable low of $65,000 since late May with little resistance.

The price is now testing an important support block at $60,000, which previously acted as a strong rebound area following the February capitulation. This zone represents the last major defense for the bulls before the market opens the door to significantly lower levels.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart highlights the severity of the recent collapse. Following an extended consolidation near the $74,000 region, BTC failed to reclaim the level and subsequently broke below the lower boundary of the daily ascending channel that had supported the price action for months.

As the breakout accelerated, the $65,000 support area also gave way, taking the price directly into the demand region of $60,000 to $62,000. This area is currently avoiding further declines and has already attracted some buying interest.

An important observation comes from the RSI, which has formed a slight bullish divergence in extremely oversold conditions while the price has established new local lows. Although the signal is still early, it suggests that bearish momentum may be weakening in the near term and could support a temporary bounce towards the $65,000 resistance zone.

However, from a structural perspective, the market continues to post lower highs and lower lows. As long as BTC remains below the broken support levels of $65,000 and $74,000, any recovery is likely to be seen as a corrective move rather than the start of a new uptrend.

Chain analysis

The adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR), a metric that measures whether coins moved on-chain are sold at a profit or loss, is providing an important signal regarding investor behavior.

The chart shows that the 30-day EMA of aSOPR has fallen below the critical threshold of 1.0. Historically, readings above 1 indicate that market participants are making profits on average, while values ​​below 1 suggest that coins are being spent at a loss.

The recent drop below 1 coincides with Bitcoin’s decline towards the $60,000 area and reflects growing capitulation among holders. This change suggests that a larger portion of investors are now exiting their positions at a loss, a behavior commonly associated with bearish market phases and periods of weak confidence.

While persistent readings below 1 typically accompany downtrends, they can also indicate the latter stages of a corrective phase as weaker hands exit the market. Therefore, traders should closely monitor whether aSOPR can regain the 1.0 level. A recovery above that threshold would indicate renewed profitability across the network and could support broader market stabilization.

For now, both price action and on-chain data continue to favor sellers, while the $60,000 support region remains the key battleground that will likely determine Bitcoin’s next big directional move.