Sign of the week: The sell-side risk index, which measures how much pressure the market is actually under to sell, fell to its lowest level since October 2023. This suggests holders have little urgency to exit right now, but big moves tend to be preceded by a period of compression.
Bitcoin price fell below $80,000 amid the jump in US CPI and PPI numbers, as well as growing expectations of a Fed rate hike this year. The price is now close to the point where the recent average buyer breaks even, which could become a turning point to either reestablish the bearish move or test important resistance levels.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it is severe enough to shake confidence in the direction of the market. It combines on-chain holder behavior, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants do rather than what they say.
Scoring bands:
- Normal rotation (0–24) — routine profit taking, without structural change
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups changing position, uneven pressure across the market
- High impact (50–74) — widespread tension between multiple groups of holders and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Hit (75–100) — total capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations and strong currency inflows at the same time
Week 20 (May 11-17): BII 43.7: High repositioning
Positive signs: long-term holders continue to buy and LTH selling pressure remains historically low
Long-term holders added another 80,000 BTC to their wallets this week, continuing an accumulation trend that has persisted for months. This cohort continues to buy even though their supply is becoming increasingly lost, which is a sign of conviction rather than panic.
He sell-side risk ratio – which measures how much pressure the market is really under to sell – reached its lowest level since October 2023. The move is primarily driven by long-term holders whose own put risk index is also near three-year lows, indicating that people who have held Bitcoin the longest have little urgency to sell right now.
As such, the latter is a fairly bullish sign from a long-term perspective. However, historically, equally low sell-side risk index levels have often preceded sharp price movements in any direction in the short term. And from BCDD needles to greater inactivity among long-term holders, while short-term holders currently master By selling off Bitcoin, this dynamic could temporarily support bearish momentum before the broader long-term trend resumes.
Negative signs: ETFs faced one of their largest capital outflows in 2026
Bitcoin Spot ETFs Reported $1 Billion in Net Outflowsthe biggest reading since January. Much of the capital outflows were driven by this week’s US inflation data, which significantly changed market expectations around Federal Reserve policy. This suggests that institutions and retail investors in ETFs may have become more cautious, which could potentially limit short-term capital inflows.
The 7-day SMA of net stablecoin flows was essentially flat at -$2 million after several weeks of high and positive readings. This indicates that no fresh capital had arrived in any significant size last week, meaning that the record ETF outflow was not being offset by the influx of new retail purchasing power.
Mixed signals: financing rates approach neutrality
The proportion of liquidations coming from long positions jumped from 34% to 71%. This is the opposite of the short squeeze dynamic that had been supporting prices throughout April. However, risk aversion fueled by rising inflation figures in the United States also led to broader deleveraging, bring financing rates closer to neutral levels rather than deeply negative. For now, it removes a persistent source of one-way pressure on derivatives, but it also highlights a period of indecision or a waiting mode.
What could happen next?
Bitcoin is currently trading near $77,000, moving below $78,000, where both its short-term holder cost basis and its true average price lie. If Bitcoin remains below $78,000, this could accelerate selling pressure. Moving and staying above would mean that most short-term holders would continue to take profits, and this could help maintain bullish momentum.
For now, the next significant support is at $76,250, which corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high. In turn, a break below $76,250 would likely trigger an even deeper correction.
A recovery towards $80,000 would require ETF flows to reverse again or new stablecoin capital to arrive. However, a sustained break above could open the way towards $85,750, the 0.382 Fib level. However, the sell side is thin and the buy side just got thinner, as far as Bitcoin can see higher volatility in the coming weeks.
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