Arizona faces a tough test against the state of Utah, which does not have enough seeds

No. 9 Utah State vs. No. 1 Arizona

Sunday March 22
4:50 p.m. Pacific Time, truTv
San Diego, California, USA

Rrebounds and free throws.

Those are the keys for Arizona to advance to the Sweet 16.

The Wildcats have several players who can make a difference. Tommy Lloyd’s team is not reliant on any one player and can overcome poor performances from its key contributors.

If Brayden Burries doesn’t have it, Anthony Dell’Orso steps up. If Koa Peat can’t get it going, Tobe Awaka takes over.

And so on.

There are simply too many weapons for Utah State to slow down. Too many variables to take into account.

The only way Arizona loses is if it defeats itself. And how does he do that?

Missing free throws and giving up offensive rebounds.

At times, the Wildcats have been sluggish on the defensive glass and have gone cold at the line. There aren’t many flaws in the team, but those two categories are issues worth mentioning.

So how do the Aggies compare? Well, frankly, not very well.

Jerrod Calhoun’s team ranks 222nd nationally in rebounds per game. That would place USU 11th in the Big 12.

In other words, in the bottom half of the league, around the other teams that missed the Tournament.

Utah State’s offensive rebounding is slightly better, ranking 179th nationally. But that would also put them at 11th in the Big 12.

For comparison, Arizona ranks second nationally in rebounds per game and 33rd overall in offensive rebounds per game.

That’s not a good analytical matchup for the Aggies and is arguably why the gap is so wide.

This is not Villanova.

The quality of competition USU is about to face is exponentially better than what Nova brought to the court. You’re not going up against Duke Brennan and Devin Askew.

This is an Arizona team that won the nation’s toughest conference by multiple games and won the Big 12 Tournament by beating two Final Four contenders.

The Cats are coming off their largest margin of victory in the NCAA Tournament since 1998, and they didn’t even play that well.

Add to that a strong contingent of Arizona fans at Viejas Arena and you have a recipe for a convincing victory.

But the three-point shot is the final tie. And allowing second-chance opportunities, while missing free throws, is the path to an upset.

If Utah State hits its three and gets second-chance points, the chance of an upset increases substantially.

At the same time, if Arizona controls the defensive glass and takes care of the free throw line, they should come out with a win.