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By Dane Miller, SuperWest Sports
tThere is only one month left until March.
With several West teams hovering on the bubble, this month’s results could determine their NCAA Tournament hopes.
Mountain West teams, in particular, are competing for the precious few at-large bids the league is expected to receive.
New Mexico, Utah State and San Diego State are fighting for what could be just one bid on top of the automatic bid to win the MWC Tournament Championship.
And in the WCC, Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s are fighting for what will likely be the only WCC bid outside of Gonzaga.
Here’s how I look at the top 10 college basketball teams in the West at the beginning of February.
1. Arizona (22-0, 9-0)
tThe Wildcats remained undefeated with road wins at BYU and Arizona State.
Tommy Lloyd’s team is off to the best start in program history. But what happens in the regular season doesn’t really matter.
This team, like every Arizona team before it, will be judged by what happens in March.
2. Gonzaga (22-1, 10-0)
YouUndefeated in the WCC and with just one non-conference loss, Gonzaga is in contention for first place.
With wins over Oklahoma, Creighton, Alabama, Kentucky and UCLA, the Zags have a reasonable case.
But to get there, Mark Few’s team must take care of business on the road against Santa Clara, San Francisco and Saint Mary’s this month.
3. Brigham Young University (17-4, 5-3)
tLosses to Arizona and Kansas don’t change the ceiling of BYU’s season.
The slow starts, however, are alarming. Kevin Young must fix that problem before the end of the regular season.
Otherwise, the Cougars could fall below the 4-seed line and risk a first-round upset.
4. Santa María (19-4, 8-2)
tThe Gaels lost to Gonzaga in Spokane, but remain in a favorable position.
Ranked 32nd in NET and 35th in KenPom, Saint Mary’s is on the right side of the bubble. However, any surprising loss to close WCC could be problematic.
If San Francisco arrives in Moraga and defeats the Gaels this week, alarm bells will begin to ring.
5. New Mexico (18-4, 9-2)
tThe Wolves look like the best team in the Mountain West.
However, Joe Lunardi has New Mexico hovering dangerously close to the cut line, indicating the lack of leverage the MWC has this season.
The Lobos host Utah State and Boise State this week, presenting opportunities to bolster resumes.
6.UCLA (15-7, 7-4)
TO The double overtime loss to a big brand like Indiana doesn’t change much. Especially with key contributor Skyy Clark missing the game due to injury.
Still, a home loss to an unranked opponent is not ideal.
For now, just take care of Rutgers and Washington before a tough stretch hits with games against Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois.
7. Utah State (18-3, 9-2)
bEating San Diego State was arguably Utah State’s best win of the season. Metrics love the Aggies, and so do bracketologists.
Ranked 31st in KenPom, 27th in NET, and 9th by Lunardi, Utah State should feel good about its chances in the NCAA Tournament.
A win over New Mexico in Albuquerque this week would back up the metrics.
8. San Diego State (15-6, 9-2)
YoThese are tough times in San Diego. The Mountain West isn’t highly regarded this season and the Aztecs have a bad loss to Troy on their resume.
This week should be quiet, however, with games against Wyoming and Air Force.
The second half of February gets tougher, with contests against Nevada, GCU, Utah State and New Mexico.
9.California (16-6, 4-5)
lComing out of the Florida trip with a split was in line with expectations. But leaving with a win over Miami and a loss to Florida State was not.
Without any recent success in the NCAA Tournament, the Bears face an uphill road to earning an at-large bid.
But if Cal handles Georgia Tech and Clemson in Berkeley this week, the Bears could find themselves in the projected field.
10. Santa Clara (19-5, 10-1)
YesIn the Bubble, Santa Clara handled its affairs last week. The margin of victory over San Francisco and Loyola Marymount helped perceptions.
Combined with the win over Saint Mary’s in early January, the Broncos are in a decent position.
But non-conference losses to Loyola Chicago and Arizona State remain problematic.
Miller covers college basketball and college football, as well as Formula 1 racing as a senior writer and assistant editor for SuperWest Sports.
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