Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), argues that bitcoin could reach $11 million in the first quarter of 2036, not because it replaces the financial system, but because it becomes the dominant long-duration savings asset in an economy reshaped by AI-led deflation and repeated monetary expansion. Their thesis, laid out in a March 2 Substack note, frames Bitcoin less as a speculative trade and more as the asset most likely to absorb excess liquidity in a world of falling production costs and chronic political intervention.
Burnett base case implies a value of the bitcoin network of approximately $230 trillion by 2036. He compares this to a global financial asset base that he estimates could grow from more than $1 trillion today to around $1.97 trillion in the next decade, assuming an annual capitalization of 7%. In that framework, bitcoin would represent around 12% of global financial assets.
“That result reflects a measured revaluation of global wealth toward the only monetary asset in absolute scarcity,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin doesn’t need to replace all currencies. It doesn’t need universal daily transactional use. It just needs to become the leading long-duration savings asset in a world defined by monetary expansion and technological deflation.”
The Bitcoin AI Deflation Thesis in 2036
At the center of the argument is what Burnett calls the “AI deflation engine.” His view is that artificial intelligence will compress labor costs, speed up production and intensify competition in physical and digital industries, creating sustained downward pressure on prices. He compares the change to the displacement of horses by the automobile, but maintains that this time the target is white-collar workers. AI, he wrote, is already drafting contracts, analyzing finances, writing code and handling research that was once carried out by young professionals, while robotics continues to advance in logistics, manufacturing and agriculture.
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In a neutral monetary system, he argues, that kind of productivity boom would simply increase real purchasing power. In a debt-based fiduciary system, it becomes destabilizing. Falling wages, weakening asset prices and fixed nominal liabilities do not mix well. “As AI drives deflation in the real economy, central banks and fiscal authorities expand liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral,” Burnett wrote. “The more effective AI is at reducing costs, the more aggressive the monetary response will be to avoid debt deflation.”
That political reflection is the bridge to bitcoin. Burnett argues that every deflationary shock begins with a move toward cash and sovereign bonds, but that phase tends to give way to rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, credit support and fiscal transfers. He points to previous episodes in 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020 and 2022 as evidence that authorities do not tolerate sustained deflation. By his account, the long-term result is persistent productivity deflation combined with persistent monetary expansion, a combination that leaves capital searching for an asset whose supply cannot be expanded politically.
From there, Burnett widens the lens. In his view, stocks are increasingly exposed to AI-driven creative destruction. Real estate retains scarcity value, but technology could speed up design, permitting and construction, limiting long-term upside. Meanwhile, sovereign bonds offer nominal stability while remaining pegged to currencies subject to continued dilution. He argues that Bitcoin is in a different category because its supply limit, divisibility, portability, and verifiability make it uniquely suited to absorbing global liquidity over time.
He also ties that thesis to a newer market structure he calls “digital credit”: income-generating securities backed by large balances of bitcoin. Burnett cites publicly traded instruments such as STRC and SATA as examples of vehicles that offer dollar income to credit investors while funneling capital into additional bitcoin accumulation. He argues that could create a reflexive loop between the demand for global performance and the purchase of bitcoins.
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The note relies heavily on the mathematics of scarcity. Burnett writes that by 2036, fewer than 41,000 new BTC will be issued throughout the year. If global financial assets reach roughly $2 trillion and only 1% of a year’s incremental capital formation seeks monetary preservation in bitcoin, that would still equate to $1.4 trillion competing for that limited new supply, or roughly $34 million of demand per newly issued currency.
“The path will not be easy, but the conclusion will become increasingly obvious,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin’s trajectory toward eight-figure price levels reflects structural monetary conditions rather than speculative enthusiasm and ‘belief.’ As liquidity continues to expand within a technologically deflationary world, capital will concentrate in assets capable of preserving value over time.”
His bottom line has less to do with straight-line appreciation than with timing. Markets, he argues, still value bitcoin as a volatile cyclical asset. In his opinion, the next decade will increasingly value it as monetary infrastructure. If that transition comes close to its $11 million goal, Burnett’s thesis is clear: If AI continues to drive abundance and policymakers continue to offset it with liquidity, bitcoin may be where a growing share of global capital ends up.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $66,958.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
