By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
tThe sound you just heard was me raising my hands and everything I could put in them, into the air. This season of MW is crazy!
Just when things were starting to look like they were floundering last week, the conference fell apart.
Boise State loses at home for the first time since 2023, to a Fresno State team that looked dead in the water after a pair of tough losses.
New Mexico engages in a shootout with UNLV and overtakes a Rebel squad that seemed poised to get back into the thick of things.
Hawaii looked ready to take the next step in its developing season, only to fall to a San Jose State team reeling after two straight losses.
Even non-conference action goes haywire when Army fails to convert a fourth-and-2 at its own 28 with three minutes left and a seven-point lead on Air Force, allowing a receiver to get loose behind the secondary and fall for a last-second FG in regulation.
The only thing that can be expected this season is the unexpected and that San Diego State continues to perform. And let’s not forget that SDSU’s only loss was at the hands of Washington State and it’s becoming more and more inconceivable as the weeks go by.
But I’ll make another attempt to try to figure out this league this week. Maybe a lighter load this week will normalize things.
Here’s a look at the four-game slate for MW this week.
Air Force Falcons at San Jose State Spartans
Saturday November 8
12:00 pm (PT), FS1
Line: San José State –4.5
More/Less: 66.5
tThe Falcons are coming off a bitter loss at the hands of Army, while San Jose State turned things around against a solid Hawaii team.
The Spartans are winless on the road this season, but enter their homecoming contest with Air Force having won each of their last three at CEFCU Stadium. SJSU is 3-3 in its last six, and a big reason is the play of Walker Eget.
During that six-game stretch, the prolific quarterback threw for 352.5 yards per game with 15 touchdowns, a QB rating of 158.37 and perhaps most importantly, no interceptions.
Air Force has struggled mightily against the pass this season, ranking 132nd nationally in pass defense.
The Falcons’ passing defense finally finished them off late in the loss last week. The Spartans lead the nation in passing and must pick up yards in bunches through the air.
As good as SJSU is shooting the ball, they are equally bad against the pass this season, ranking last in the country in stopping passing attacks.
The Falcons will obviously look to run the ball first and should have success on the ground in this one. That said, this could be a game where the Falcons find some success through the air, and Liam Szarka might have to stretch the defense.
I think the Spartans will simply score too many points for Air Force to keep up, but look for a big dose of offense on both sides.
Against the spread: San Jose State
Total points: On
Overall winner: San Jose State
Nevada Wolf Pack at Utah State Aggies
Saturday November 8
4:30 p.m. Pacific Time, CBS Sports
Line: Utah State –9.5
More/Less: 52.5
TOAnother constant in this unpredictable 2025 conference season has been Nevada’s inability to win games and ultimately find the end zone.
The Pack’s 14 points per game this season are the fourth-lowest total in the nation, and its 10 touchdowns scored are tied with UMass for the fewest scores among FBS programs.
Utah State hasn’t exactly made an effort this season to keep the scoreboard from turning on its opponent’s side. Only two MW schools have allowed more points per game this season than the Aggies’ 31.8.
The difference in this one really is the Aggies’ ability to score, while the Wolf Pack hasn’t had much success stopping opponents this season. Bryson Barnes should have a field day against Nevada’s defense.
The Aggies have a chance to bring their record to 5-4 with a possible bowl game on the horizon. Nevada is 1-7 and suffering from the mental fatigue that comes with a long season and a six-game losing streak.
Stopping an explosive road offense this week seems like a big hill to climb for Jeff Choate’s team. USU wins this one and leaves.
Against the spread: Utah State
Total points: On
Overall winner: Utah State
UNLV Rebels at Colorado State Rams
Saturday November 8
6:30 p.m. Pacific Time, FS1
Line: UNLV –4.5
More/Less: 62.5
YouNLV has lost consecutive games for the first time since December 2023. Despite the two losses, that fact says a lot about the state of this program over the past few seasons.
The Rebels earned bowl eligibility for the third consecutive season for the first time and have six wins in the first eight games for the third time since 1984.
Colorado State is also coming off back-to-back losses, but unlike the Rebels, the Rams have six losses and need to win to extend their season into bowl season.
The Rebel defense has let them down this season, especially in their pair of losses. UNLV has given up 545 yards per game in losses and 9.73 yards per play.
It’s not easy to win when you allow one first down per play. Colorado State hasn’t had an explosive offense this season.
This is the first time schools have met in Colorado since 2019; The Rams won that one.
The Rebels haven’t won in Fort Collins since 2002. That losing streak, along with their current two-game skid, ends when UNLV gets the road win.
Against the spread: UNLV
Total Points: On
Overall winner: UNLV
San Diego State Aztecs at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Saturday November 8
8:00 pm (Pacific Time), spectrum
Line: San Diego State –7
More/Less: 50.5
YesA Diego State appears to have Mountain West class through the first half of conference play.
Yes, with a 4-0 record the Aztecs still have four league games left on the schedule. Those four include a visit from Boise State next weekend.
But before SDSU can begin to focus its attention on that, it must embark on a difficult road trip to Hawaii and the dangerous Rainbow Warriors.
They say that the defense and the running game will travel. Well, the Aztecs have been good on the field and the defense has been absolutely up to par this season.
UH got burned through the air in its loss to San Jose State last week, but the Warriors have been good against the run all season, especially in their six wins.
Hawaii will have to be good against the run in this one, as Lucky Sutton leads the Aztecs’ offense and their conference leads at 102.5 rushing yards per outing.
The running back ranks 10th nationally in rushing this season and is coming off a career-high 158 rushing yards against Wyoming.
The Aztecs should be able to control things on the field and take their winning streak to seven in a row. If SDSU comes with an eye on Hawaii, it could turn into a nightmarish road trip.
Against the spread: San Diego State
Total points: Low
Overall winner: San Diego State
writes on various topics for SuperWest sports, including statistics and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and directs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
