By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
W.We have a five-game slate for the Mountain West this weekend.
The four conference matchups give us a little bit of everything.
We have what appears to be an offensive shootout between UNLV and New Mexico. Wyoming and San Diego State will bring in the defenses, while the offense could be an afterthought.
Hawai’i and San Jose State will battle for a trophy, and in a slight twist, it’s the Spartans who are playing with their bowl hopes hanging by the thinnest of threads.
On the blue turf, the Broncos welcome a Fresno State team that suddenly has more questions than answers to its turnover woes.
Here’s a look at all five games with my straight-up and against-the-spread picks.
Black Army Knights on Air Force Falcons
Black Army Knights on Air Force Falcons
Saturday November 1
9:00 a.m. Pacific Time, CBS
Line: Air Force -1.5
More/Less: 49.5
bBoth Air Forces and the Black Knights are going on bye weeks. Army fell to Tulane in its last game, and the Falcons defeated Wyoming in their last contest, defeating an FBS foe for the first time this season.
This one is huge in the battle for the Commander in Chief’s Trophy. A loss for the Falcons would eliminate them from contention after their previous loss to Navy. A victory for the Army would leave it in the hands of the Cadets’ season finale with the Midshipmen.
For Army, the offense goes through Cale Hellums. The junior quarterback leads the Knights with 613 rushing yards and has averaged 153 over the last two games.
Hellums is the engine behind the nation’s fourth-ranked rushing offense, and that should keep Air Force’s potent offense off the field for much of the game.
The Falcons have struggled against the run, allowing 198.7 yards per game over their last three outings.
Army has been much better against the run this season, but they allowed Tulane to rush for 141 last week, producing 4.9 yards per carry, while UAB averaged 5.6 yards per carry against them earlier this season.
Liam Szarka has rushed for over 100 yards in each of Air Force’s last five games and offers the Falcons more in the passing game than his counterpart does in this one.
The Air Force will score points against the Army; It all comes down to whether the Falcons can make enough stops. The Falcons have shown deficiencies against powerful teams, and the Black Knights are positioned to exploit them.
This one is still close, but I think Army gets the win.
Against the spread: Army
Total Points: Low
Overall winner: Army
New Mexico Lobos at UNLV Rebels
New Mexico Lobos at UNLV Rebels
Saturday November 1
12:00 pm (Pacific Time), MW Network
Line: UNLV-4.5
More/Less: 61.5
YouNLV has the 17th most powerful scoring offense in the country, averaging 37.1 per game. New Mexico allows 24.8 points per game, ranking 76th nationally.
New Mexico is undefeated this season by scoring at least 30 points. When the Wolves stay under 30, they are 1-3. UNM will likely need to score more than 30 to come away with the win.
The Lobos could have success then, because the Rebels’ defense has been abysmal, allowing 33.4 points per outing. Only 11 teams in the country have allowed their opponents to score more often.
UNM hasn’t set the world on fire on offense this season, but the Lobos can certainly move the ball.
Damon Bankston and Scottre Humphrey should have no problem finding running space in UNLV’s defense. The Rebels are allowing over six yards per carry this season, and those two running backs have combined to average 5.1 yards per carry.
The key when the Lobos have the ball could be third downs. UNM is converting 41.4% of its third downs, while UNLV has only allowed a conversion on 29.1% of them, ninth best in the country.
For all their struggles in defense, when it comes to raising money, the rebels are still making it. If they can get the Wolves off the field often enough, they will be in good shape.
And that brings us back to the first point. . . UNLV’s scoring prowess against the Lobo defense. If UNM stops on third downs, the rebels will overtake them.
Anthony Colandrea has been outstanding with his arms and legs this season, and his decision making with the ball has been masterful. Look for the Rebel running game to do some quality work with the combo of Colandrea and Jai’Den Thomas.
The Rebels will score a lot of points, and the Lobos might too, but UNLV wins in a shootout.
Against the spread: UNLV
Total points: On
Overall winner: UNLV
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
Saturday November 1
12:30 p.m. (PT), FS1
Line: Boise State -17.5
More/Less: 50.5
GRAMWe’re set for a showdown between one of the best offenses in the conference and one of the best defenses in the Mountain West when Boise State hosts Fresno State.
A few weeks ago, this had the feeling of being a possible preview of the conference title game, if not an elimination contest. That was a few weeks ago, and since then, the Broncos have won three in a row at an average of 20.7 per game.
The Bulldogs have lost two straight in that span, dropping 49 to CSU before being eliminated at home last week by San Diego State, their first shutout in the Valley in 45 years.
EJ Warner was benched after his three interceptions against Colorado State; Carson Conklin stepped in and threw a pair of picks in the loss to SDSU.
The Bulldogs have been plagued by turnovers all season, and their 11 interceptions rank second-to-last in the nation, while the team’s 16 total steals are tied for fourth in the country.
All this despite having a defense that has been as opportunistic as any in the nation.
One team that has been even more opportunistic this season is Boise State. The Broncos are sixth in the nation with 16 steals, and their 11 interceptions are eighth most in the United States.
Maddux Madsen has only thrown three picks in four conference games.
It’s another sellout in Boise, and the Bulldogs will struggle to find traction on offense. Boise State wins handily, even if Fresno State’s defense makes things difficult.
Against the spread: Boise State
Total points: Low
Overall winner: Boise State
Wyoming Cowboys at San Diego State Aztecs
Wyoming Cowboys at San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday November 1
4:00 p.m. PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: San Diego State –10.5
More/Less: 42.5
tThe Aztecs look like disruptors this season, not only in the conference race, but also as potential spoilers on the national stage.
The reason is clear: this San Diego State defense is real.
The Aztecs have recorded three shutouts this season, limiting their opponents to just 10.4 points per game.
This week, that dominant defense will face an offense that will never be confused with the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. Wyoming averages 21.0 points per game and has only scored more than 21 in two games against FBS opponents.
What the Cowboys lack on offense, they make up for on the other side of the ball. While not as dominant as what we’ve seen from the Aztecs, Wyoming has limited opponents. UW allows just 342 yards of offense and 19.8 points per game.
Look for this to be a fight.
The Aztecs have more firepower on offense, and that will be evident on Saturday. The Aztec running game has been good, and Lucky Sutton is coming off a career-high 131 rushing yards against Fresno State.
If you want open, high-flying offenses, this is not for you. Expect San Diego State to win with some room to spare in a low-scoring affair.
Against the spread: San Diego State
Total points: Low
Overall winner: San Diego State
Hawaiian Rainbow Warriors at San Jose State Spartans
Hawaiian Rainbow Warriors at San Jose State Spartans
Saturday November 1
7:30 p.m. PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: San José State –2.5
More/Less: 57.5
tThe Dick Tomey Legacy Trophy will be on the line when the Spartans host the Rainbow Warriors on Saturday night.
One of these teams is already bowl-eligible at 6-2, while the other is about to miss out on a chance to reach six wins this season.
At the start of the season, most believed that Hawai’i would be better than 2-6 at this point, while San Jose State would already be bowl eligible, having advanced to the first half of the 2025 campaign.
But here we are at the start of the final month of the regular season, and it is Timmy Chang’s unit that is looking to the postseason.
The Spartans, however, are slight favorites in this case thanks to the proverbial home field advantage. The betting line also speaks to SJSU’s talented roster, making the Spartans a threat to eliminate anyone left on their schedule.
The Rainbow Warriors have made progress this season thanks to a defense that has improved considerably in recent years.
UH is holding opponents to just 23.1 points per game and 323.6 yards of total offense. Both figures rank third in the Mountain West.
The Spartans’ woes stem from a defense that hasn’t answered the call enough this season, allowing the fourth-most points in the conference. His 425 yards allowed per game ranks 119th in the nation.
That suspect defense will be a problem on Saturday. Micah Alejado and the UH offense have been on fire in recent weeks.
The QB has thrown for over 300 yards and over three touchdowns in each of Hawaii’s last three games while leading an offense that has averaged 39.7 points, 390.3 passing yards and 505.3 yards of total offense over that three-game stretch.
The Warriors defense won’t let this be a shootout, and if the Spartans can’t stop Hawaii’s offense, it will be a long day for Ken Niumatalolo against his alma mater.
Against the spread: Hawaii
Total points: Low
Overall winner: Hawaii
writes on various topics for SuperWest sports, including statistics and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and directs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
