US Retail to Reach $6.2 Trillion as In-Store Sales Remain Dominant: Forrester

Total U.S. retail sales, excluding cars and gasoline, are forecast to rise to $6.2 trillion by 2030 from $5.2 trillion in 2025, according to Forrester’s latest U.S. Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025 to 2030.

The projected growth reflects resilient consumer demand despite tariff-related uncertainty in early 2025, supported by stable inflation and interest rates, low unemployment, and wage growth that outpaces inflation.

However, spending patterns are divergent: higher-income households drive growth, while lower-income consumers remain focused on essentials. Research points to a growing divergence in spending patterns between income groups.

E-commerce sales in the United States are projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2030, representing 29 percent of total retail sales. Growth will be driven by demographic changes as Generation Z enters the workforce, improvements in logistics that enable faster and more reliable fulfillment, and technological innovations such as agent trading.

Retailer strategies, including select markets, are also expected to expand product selection and unlock additional retail media opportunities.

Physical retail will continue to dominate overall sales. In-store channels are projected to generate $4.4 trillion in 2030, representing 71 percent of total retail sales. Forrester highlighted that tangible experiences, immediate gratification, product comparison, social interaction and personalized support will continue to be the strengths of traditional retail.

Reflecting this, retailers are prioritizing investments to improve the in-store experience through technology. Key initiatives include empowering store employees, improving customer self-service, strengthening omnichannel inventory visibility, expanding product assortment, and intensifying efforts to prevent theft and theft to maintain safe retail environments.

U.S. retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, are forecast to rise to $6.2 trillion by 2030 from $5.2 trillion in 2025, driven by resilient demand, stable inflation and strong labor markets. E-commerce is projected to reach $1.8 trillion, or a 29 percent share, while in-store retail will continue to dominate at 71 percent, supported by experiential strengths and technology-driven store investments.

Fiber2Fashion (HU) News Desk