Bitcoin continues to struggle as it attempts to reclaim the $90,000 level, with traders facing a market defined by hesitation rather than conviction. After yesterday’s bearish break below $90,000, the price action has fallen back into undecided territory, raising new questions as to whether this pullback is a temporary shakeout or the beginning of a deeper corrective phase.
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According to top analyst Axel Adler, a macro indicator called Trend Pulse helps explain why the momentum has faded. Adler notes that since January 19, the market has remained in bearish mode, with the bullish phase absent for 83 consecutive days. Two separate charts reinforce this shift and show that both near-term momentum and quarterly performance have turned negative at the same time.
Trend Pulse recently changed from Neutral to Bear, driven by a double negative setup: the 14-day performance turned red and the SMA30 versus SMA200 trend signal is also negative. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s quarterly performance sits at -19%, confirming macroeconomic weakness, but without the kind of extreme that often signals a definitive bottom.
Bitcoin Remains Stuck in Bearish Mode as Macro Signals Remain Negative
Adler grades that the last signal of Bitcoin’s bullish mode was printed on November 2, 2025, when BTC traded near $110,000, approximately 83 days ago. Since then, the market has failed to regain its structural strength. Even the Neutral leg between December 30 and January 18 proved too short and too weak to restore the long-term trend, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable once selling pressure returned.
Adler explains that the first improving factor is for the 14-day yield to return above 0, which would change the regime from bearish to neutral. However, a complete transition back to Bull mode requires a second condition: SMA30 surpassing SMA200. Given the current divergence between the two averages, such a crossover would likely require 3 to 4 weeks of sustained upside rather than a short-lived bounce.
The Bitcoin price performance chart adds macro context by tracking quarterly performance (90D) as a sentiment indicator. Historically, readings above +75% align with euphoria, while values below 0% indicate pessimism and drops below -30% reflect capitulation.
Bitcoin’s quarterly performance is close to -19%, negative but far from the deep extremes of the bear market. However, the 7-day change (-6.8%) suggests that the bearish momentum is accelerating after the collapse of $90,000.
Together, Trend Pulse and quarterly returns point to moderate pessimism without a final capitulation, leaving the market at a decision point.
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BTC Moving Averages Limit Recovery
Bitcoin is trading near $89,000 after failing to stay above the psychological level of $90,000, reinforcing the current market indecision. The chart shows BTC printing a structure of lower highs from the early November peak, followed by a sharp sell-off that reset the price in a wide consolidation range. After bottoming in late November, Bitcoin recovered but struggled to generate sustained momentum, repeatedly stalling in attempts to push towards the mid-$90,000 zone.
From a trend perspective, BTC remains pressured below its key moving averages. The price is trading below the green long-term average and the blue medium-term average, both of which are now sloping downward, indicating that the overall momentum continues to turn bearish.
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The most recent rejection came when BTC briefly entered the $95,000 to $97,000 area, only to turn around and fall back towards the range lows. Meanwhile, the long-term red average remains well above the price near $100,000, highlighting the extent to which BTC would need to rally to reestablish a stronger macro bullish trend.
Volume has increased due to sell-offs relative to bounces, suggesting that bearish moves are still being faced with greater urgency. For the bulls, reclaiming $90,000 and then holding above $92,000-94,000 is key. Otherwise, the chart keeps open the risk of a deeper pullback towards the mid-$80,000 region.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
