Average spot rates from China to the US West Coast on October 31 decreased 59 percent year-on-year (YoY) to $2,147 per 40-foot container unit (FEU). Spot rates on the US East Coast were down 48 percent year-over-year to $3,044 per FEU.
The decline in spot rates coincides with falling volumes in trans-Pacific trade, with the latest figures showing container shipping demand from China to the United States fell 13 percent year-on-year in August.
The 12-month trade truce between the United States and China will not stop the decline in ocean container shipping rates in 2026 and has left shippers and freight forwarders in uncertain positions, according to Xeneta. The drop in spot rates coincides with the drop in volumes in trans-Pacific trades. Xeneta’s 2026 forecast puts long-term global average rates 20 percent below December 2023 levels, before the escalation of the Red Sea conflict.
“The truce between the United States and China is a positive development, but it will not suddenly breathe life into the weakening demand for container shipping in the trans-Pacific trade,” Emily Stausboll, senior shipping analyst at the Norway-based sea and air freight rate benchmarking and market analysis platform, said in a company statement.
“Tariffs remain high despite the truce and US shippers will use the first half of 2026 to reduce built-up inventories by frontloading imports early in the year to protect supply chains in the wake of the escalating trade war,” he noted.
“Xeneta expects global average spot rates to fall by up to 25 percent for the full year 2026 and long-term rates to fall by up to 10 percent against this backdrop of subdued demand between the world’s two most powerful trading nations,” it said.
Xeneta’s forecast for 2026 puts long-term global average rates 20 percent below December 2023 levels, before the escalation of the Red Sea conflict.
“The US-China truce sees the elimination of port fees for ships calling on both sides of the Pacific. This is good news for shippers as some are hit by multibillion-dollar port fees but are still heading into potentially deficit territory if long-term contract rates fall significantly below pre-Red Sea crisis levels in late 2023,” Stausboll said.
“Shippers have already repositioned vessels in global shipping services to address the threat of port charges and this disruption now appears to be in vain,” he added.
Fiber2Fashion News Desk (DS)
