Standard Chartered has dramatically reviewed its bitcoin price outlook, cutting its 2026 forecast from $300,000 to $150,000. While the downgrade is significant, the British banking giant still sees strong long-term upside for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Despite the downward revision, the new target still implies a substantial increase from current price levels. Analysts emphasized that Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend remains intact, even if the expected pace of appreciation has slowed.
Long-term goals were also delayed
Standard Chartered also adjusted its longer-term projections. The bank now waits bitcoin reach $500,000 by 2030instead of 2028 as previously forecast.
“The schedule has changed, but the direction has not,” he said. Geoff Kendrickglobal head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, in a note to clients.
Kendrick cited changes in Bitcoin ETF dynamics and valuation metrics as key reasons for the downgrade. It also reduced demand expectations from corporate treasuries.
“We now believe that almost all of Bitcoin’s future price appreciation will come from a single source: ETF inflows,” Kendrick wrote. “That’s why we’re lowering our price targets for the end of the year.”
This shift increasingly places emphasis on institutional capital flows rather than the adoption of corporate balance sheets as the primary driver of Bitcoin price.
Structural torus case remains intact
Despite the weaker near-term outlook, Standard Chartered remains structurally optimistic. The bank maintains that the majority of institutional investors are still significantly under-allocated to Bitcoin based on portfolio optimization models.
“Our portfolio analysis shows that global asset managers continue to hold too little Bitcoin,” Kendrick noted. While investment committee decisions may take several quarters, these adjustments are expected to create persistent long-term buying pressure.
ETFs Now Dominating Bitcoin Demand
The growing role of detect Bitcoin ETF It has fundamentally changed the structure of the Bitcoin market. Since its approval in the United States, trading activity has increasingly been driven by asset managers, pension funds and hedge funds rather than retail speculators.
This institutionalization has made Bitcoin more stable, but has also reduced the likelihood of explosive parabolic rallies seen in previous crypto cycles. As a result, macroeconomic conditions and capital flows now play a much more decisive role in determining the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price.
In summary, Standard Chartered believes that the future of Bitcoin remains bright, but the path forward is now expected to be more stable, more institution-driven, and less euphoric than in previous bull markets.
