bitcoin [BTC] it rose as high as $74,050 on Wednesday, March 4. However, it fell below the $70,000 support in the last 24 hours of trading. The move underscored that the aggressive selling pressure, which took BTC to $60,000 in February, has cooled slightly, but a broader market recovery is not yet in sight.
AMBCrypto reported that the Bull Score index was close to 10, indicating weak market sentiment. The Coinbase Premium index, which had risen into positive territory in recent days, also returned to negative territory.
Weak participants and sentiment hinted at limited conviction in the rally. This means that Bitcoin’s current pullback could extend further south. Therefore, the question is: how much more and in what time frame?
Bitcoin under pressure once again
Fountain: Axel Adler Jr in X
in a publish in Xcryptanalyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that selling pressure from long-term holders could be increasing once again.
Long-term holders are defined as the cohort of Bitcoin holders who have held their supply without moving it for at least 155 days.
At the same time, long-term holders remained profitable on average despite the 46% price drop since October. To the previous cycle bottomLong-term holders faced large losses as prices fell below their average cost basis.
At the time of this writing, this cost basis was $39.8K. And a major price drop towards this level is still likely later in 2026.
The argument for a Bitcoin rally towards $83,000
Expect volatility to remain high over the next month or two. The 30-day MVRV index hit local highs, showing that 30-day holders made, on average, nearly 8% gains. Given recent events, profit-taking could be entirely reasonable.
However, the 90- and 180-day MVRV ratios were more interesting. They had many similarities with what happened in December-January.
Back then, the 30-day MVRV kept jumping into small profit margins. The mid-January rally also led to 90-day holders taking profits (on average). Thereafter, a strong pullback wave began as Bitcoin fell to $60,000.
In the coming weeks, Bitcoin may rise towards $83,000 and even $89,000 to seek short liquidations and lull the market until it falls again. Traders can keep an eye on the 90-day MVRV metric and similarities to January.
The short-term outlook for Bitcoin
Another crypto analyst, Darkfostnoted that short-term holders (BTC holders of 155 days or less) had sent a huge amount 27.5k BTC for profitable trades. This selling pressure to take profits likely led to the price drop below $70,000.
The amount of STH BTC sent to exchanges with profits was also among the highest seen in recent weeks. Fear and uncertainty in the coming days may cause prices to drop below $68,000.
Final summary
- Selling pressure from long and short-term holders caused Bitcoin to lose its tenuous hold on the round number support of $70,000.
- The price realized by short-term holders was $68,000, and a bullish reaction from here could be a possibility in the coming days.
