According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, global cotton production was projected at 119.79 million bales and consumption at 118.61 million bales in December 2025. The forecast for China’s cotton crop increases by 1 million bales, which is more than offset by reductions in India, the United States, Argentina and Turkiye, resulting in a reduction of more than 350,000 bales. in world cotton production.
Global cotton fundamentals tightened in the January WASDE, as lower production and higher consumption reduced global ending stocks and pushed the stocks-to-use ratio below 63 percent. China drove growth in both production and demand, while reductions in India, the United States and Turkiye reduced global supply. U.S. inventories fell to 4.2 million bales, supporting expectations for firmer prices.
Global cotton consumption increases by more than 300,000 bales, as China’s increase is partially offset by reductions in Turkiye and Nicaragua. Cotton trade increases by a negligible amount, as increased imports from India are largely offset by reductions from Turkiye and Nicaragua. Cotton imports will increase to 43.76 million bales from 43.73 million bales last month.
Global ending stocks for 2025-26 are revised down by 1.5 million bales to 74.48 million bales from 75.97 million bales in December 2025. Lower ending stocks were projected due to lower production, higher consumption and reductions in India’s 2024-25 production and ending stocks estimates. As a result, the global stock-to-use ratio drops to less than 63 percent.
The 2025-26 US cotton balance for January shows lower production and ending stocks compared to December 2025. Beginning stocks, consumption, exports and imports remain unchanged. Production was down more than 2 percent from last month to 13.9 million bales, primarily due to lower production across the Delta.
The U.S. national average yield decreased 8 percent from last month to 856 pounds per acre as a result of lower yields in the Delta and increased harvested acreage in the Southwest. With the smaller harvest, ending stocks are reduced by 7 percent to 4.2 million bales, or 30.4 percent of the disappearance (total demand). The projected season average farm price rises to 61 cents per pound.
Fiber2Fashion News Desk (KUL)
