Has ADA finally bottomed after falling below $0.23 or is there more pain ahead?
The native Cardano token is once again under heavy pressure, as is most of the market. However, while BTC and most other alternatives fell to their lowest levels since the US presidential election in late 2024, ADA went even further, falling to $0.222 (on Bitstamp and other exchanges) for the first time since June 2023.
Despite recovering slightly to $0.27, the token is still down 34% on a monthly basis. Furthermore, it has plunged 80% from the cycle high of $1.33 marked at the end of 2024. Consequently, we asked ChatGPT and Gemini if the worst is behind ADA or if there is more pain around the corner.
ChatGPT says…
ChatGPT started off with some harsh words for Cardano investors, suggesting that the drop to the $0.22 area is “not just another routine drop.” Instead, he believes it represents a “structural break in long-term support, confirming that sellers remain firmly in control.” This was demonstrated after the asset fell below the key support levels of $0.40, $0.30, and even $0.25 (although it later recovered).
What could spell more trouble for ADA going forward is that these consecutive price drops suggest that “buying demand on dips has steadily weakened” lately. As such, all eyes have now focused on the $0.20 support, which has become the “line in the sand.”
If ADA falls below that psychological level, the most realistic target during the ongoing bearish phase would be a drop to $0.15-$0.16. However, ChatGPT described a more extreme capitulation scenario, in which the token plummets to $0.10-$0.12.
“While this may seem shocking, large-cap altcoins have historically lost 80% to 90% from cycle highs during severe downturns. ADA is not immune to that pattern,” he concluded.
Gemini’s opinion
Falling below $0.30 meant that ADA’s daily chart has become a “falling knife,” Gemini said. This break below multi-year support was the “final nail in the coffin for many long-term holders.” On its decline, the asset fell below its 200-day MA (around $0.45) and wiped out millions in leveraged long positions. The Gemini “nightmare” scenario foresees a drop even below $0.10 if certain factors align adversely:
“If Bitcoin capitulates to $55,000 in the coming weeks, ADA risks losing its status as a ‘major’ altcoin. A drop below $0.15 opens a liquidity gap to $0.09. While this sounds impossible, remember that ‘impossible’ things happen regularly in crypto winters,” he warned.
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