The latest exercises come just two months after the one-year truce that China and the United States reached in their trade dispute.
Charging
Associate Professor Dylan Loh of Nanyang Technological University said the exercises were unlikely to disrupt the deal and the PLA would likely refrain from any measures that might provoke a US response.
“I think they will want to get into the Goldilocks zone of inflicting pain and showing determination, but without being seen as disproportionate, so that they can anger the United States,” he said.
“A missile flying over the island would certainly fall into an escalation that could lead to tit-for-tat,” Loh said. In 2022, China sent missiles directly over the main island of Taiwan in response to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.
William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the areas the Chinese military marked for exercises were larger than in the past, “suggesting that China is trying to demonstrate progress in its military’s capabilities to impose control over larger areas around Taiwan in a possible invasion.”
‘Atrocious by nature’
An expert from the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences said in a video on social media that the PLA was conducting the exercises now because “collusion between the United States and Taiwan has become frequent and egregious in nature.”
Fu Zhengnan pointed out the size of the last weapons package and what he said was a change from defensive to offensive weaponry.
Fu was probably referring to the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. Those weapons, which Ukraine has used effectively in its fight against Russia, can penetrate as far as China’s southeastern coast. Taiwan first obtained them last year and began testing them in May 2025.
Beijing has stepped up military intimidation of the 23 million-strong democracy since Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te took office in May 2024. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be brought under its control, by force if necessary, a stance Taipei firmly rejects.
Charging
The United States is Taiwan’s main military backer and is required by law to provide democracy with weapons to defend itself.
Bloomberg, AP
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