The Bitcoin market experienced another choppy week marked by multiple failed breaks of the $115,000 resistance zone despite the announcement of another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As the price action currently consolidates around $110,000, Bitcoin options market data has provided insights into the behavior of traders and the overall situation. feeling.
Bitcoin Options Traders Betting on Stable Market
On Friday, prominent blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shared your weekly Bitcoin options market update, analyzing traders’ beliefs about future price movement. As noted above, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced its second rate cut for 2025. While this is a popular bullish move, the hawkish tone indicating there will be fewer cuts in the future reduced traders’ optimism, resulting in a brief rally in risk assets like Bitcoin.
Amid this development, BTC’s implied volatility index, which measures how much volatility traders expect in the future, is falling. This data suggests that traders are pricing in a calmer BTC with no expectations of a major price move despite the current macroeconomic noise. Meanwhile, the 1-month volatility risk premium also turned negative, as realized volatility moved faster than implied volatility. Glassnode expects this development to reverse, meaning short-term volatility is overrated and traders are likely to sell, thus supporting the narrative of an expected calm market.
Furthermore, Put/Call volume also showed another side to this narrative, producing a full retest to its lowest value in October. Notably, traders initially showed bullish action with a wave of calls, but soon changed the sentiment in line with the overall market. However, amid the dominance of calls, Glassnode sees neutral directional conviction, i.e. equal buying and selling pressure, supporting the market’s lack of confidence in an immediate bullish or bearish move.
Little hope for the price rebound?
The 25 delta bias chart has provided another narrative showing a growing sense of caution. In particular, this metric measures the implied volatility between call and put options. When the delta skew of 25 is neutral, it means that traders see balanced risk since the call and put options are priced the same. After a brief period in this neutral zone, this metric is now rising again, indicating that traders are pricing put options higher and are actively hedging against a price drop.
Therefore, while there are no expectations of any significant price movement in the near term, Bitcoin options traders appear very cautious of any price declines. At the time of this publication, Bitcoin is valued at $109,304, reflecting a minor gain of 1.94% over the past day. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume has decreased by 11.62% and is valued at $65.18 billion.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
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