A revised cycle framework is attracting increasing attention after a market technician detailed where Bitcoin stands within its broader structural progression. The evaluation maintains that the price has not changed in a background phase. Instead, the market is positioned within a transitional range that typically develops before a deeper accumulation zone forms. Based on this structure, the next accumulation phase is projected to begin below $40,000.
Bitcoin Redistribution Signals Dominate Post-Peak Structure
In his crisis, the analyst presented a chart showing the full cycle progression from the 2022 bear market lows near $16,000 to the subsequent bullish expansion. The initial stage represents classic accumulationwhere long-term participants generated exposure while sentiment remained subdued.
As the price advanced, two consolidation pauses emerged along the uptrend. The analyst identifies them as phases of reaccumulation: temporary. absorption zones where the supply was redistributed without altering the bullish structure. Stronger participants added positions while weaker holders exited, allowing the wider profit margin to continue with structural support.
The framework then tracks the transition to the distribution at the cycle highs. Here, supply began to transfer from early entrants to late buyers, limiting further gains. Once this transfer matured, the price rose on sale: the decisive fall that followed the peak.
According to the analyst, since then the market has gone from reduction to redistribution. Although both redistribution and accumulation appear to be lateral ranges, it underlines that they fulfill different structural functions. Redistribution is formed after a crisis, not at macroeconomic lows. The price may stabilize, but underlying control remains tilted towards sellers.
Volume dynamics reinforce that position. Participation has contracted rather than expanded, indicating limited conviction in demand. Instead of clear absorption, the range reflects The offer is gradually being repositioned.. The structure projects stability outward while preparing internally for a possible downward continuation.
Why Bitcoin’s Next Accumulation Zone Is Below $40,000
The analyst’s projection is anchored in the order of the historical cycle. Previous market structures followed a constant progression: accumulation at minimumreaccumulation during the advance, distribution at highs, redistribution after the fall and only then a new accumulation base.
Within that sequence, the current range aligns with the redistribution. Because this phase refreshes selling pressureIt usually resolves with an extra leg down before a durable floor is formed. The charted trajectory reflects this expectation and outlines further downsides once the range is completed.
The projected destination is below $40,000. That region is identified as the zone where structural conditions can begin to resemble true accumulation. Features would include prolonged consolidationattenuation of the bearish momentum and visible absorption of long-term demand: signs that are not yet present in the current environment.
The analyst does not frame this zone as an instant reversal point but rather as the base-building stage that historically precedes macro expansions. In this context, redistribution represents a process rather than a conclusion.
Structurally, the cycle remains in transition. Until redistribution completely exhausts the supplythe groundwork for Bitcoin’s next bull phase is unlikely to be finalized. Therefore, the framework places below $40,000 as the level where accumulation is expected to take shape and the launch pad for the next cycle.
Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
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