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October has historically been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, producing consistent gains since 2019. But this year, the flagship cryptocurrency closed down about 3.35%, rocked by a sudden mid-month drop linked to renewed tariff tensions between the United States and China.
Even the Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point rate cut did little to restore momentum. As things stand, traders are unsure about the direction of November.
Analysts, like those following bull theory, believe the slowdown could be setting the stage for a powerful recovery. “Bitcoin is not collapsing, it is restarting,” they stated, noting that the BTC price recently touched $106,000 along the same middle trend line that has supported every rally this year.
Meanwhile, both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain stable, while regression models indicate that the slope continues upward. The absence of major spikes in foreign exchange inflows further supports the idea of accumulation rather than distribution.
Macroeconomic conditions may also favor a rebound. With the Federal Reserve rate cuts, the easing of tariffs between the United States and China and the end of quantitative tightening on December 1, global liquidity is expected to expand again. That type of environment has historically preceded Bitcoin’s strongest rallies.
CoinGlass data shows that November averages 46% monthly gains over the past 12 years, often acting as a launching pad for major year-end surges. Even in weaker market cycles, the final quarter tends to generate substantial volatility and often recovery.
However, there are still some notable market variables, as the next soft fork proposal, which has divided the Bitcoin community, with whale activity indicating both accumulation and profit-taking.
Bitcoin spot ETFs, which hold nearly $150 billion in assets, continue to provide a price floor, but declining inflows may reflect hesitations among institutions. That being said, the technical resistance around $111,000 is the key level to watch as breaking above it could confirm renewed bullish momentum.
