“Nvidia’s growth is the reason the bubble is inflating,” Zitron said. “If its growth slows, the bubble will burst.”
He also warned of broader consequences: “I think a depression is coming. I think once the markets realize that technology doesn’t grow forever, they will aggressively flush Silicon Valley down the toilet.” This connects to his broader thesis: that the tech industry has run out of genuine hypergrowth opportunities and is trying to make one with AI.
“Is there anything that could falsify your premise that this bubble and this crisis is occurring?” I asked. “What happens if you make a mistake?”
“I’ve been answering ‘What if you’re wrong?’ for a year and a half or two years, so I don’t mind that question, so what would have to prove him right would have to have already happened,” he said. In the middle of a longer exposition on Sam Altman, Zitron said: “What would have had to happen with inference would have had to be… it would have to be hundredths of a cent per million tokens, it would have to be printing money, and then, it would have to be much more useful. It would have to have an efficiency that it doesn’t have, the hallucination problems… would have to be solvable, and on top of that, someone would have to fix the agents.”
A challenge of positivity
Near the end of our conversation, I wondered if I could flip the script, so to speak, and see if he could say something positive or optimistic, although I chose the most challenging topic possible for him. “What’s the best thing about Sam Altman?” I asked. “Can you say something good about him?”
“I understand why you’re asking this,” Zitron began, “but I want to be clear: Sam Altman will be the reason the markets will shit themselves. Sam Altman has lied to everyone. Sam Altman has been lying forever.” He continued: “Like the Pied Piper, he has driven the markets into an abyss, and yes, people should have known better, but I hope that at the end of this, Sam Altman is seen for what he is, which is a con artist and very successful.”
He then added: “You know what? I’ll say one good thing about him, he’s very good at making people say, ‘Yes.'”
