Are investors switching from gold to Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s price stability during the gold pullback raises questions about whether investor behavior is starting to change.

Gold’s recent slide has extended its worst losing streak in more than a century, last seen in February 1920. Prices have retreated more than 25% from January highs. It even briefly fell to $4,090 before making a partial recovery to around $4,455 mid-week.

Despite speculation that capital was shifting from gold to BTC, new data suggests weakness in both assets.

Bitcoin fails to capture gold outflow

Cryptoanalyst Darkfost has marked early signs challenging the growing narrative of capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin. After a strong yearly run, gold has entered a correction phase as it fell below its 180-day moving average amid pressure from margin calls and forced liquidations. At the same time, Bitcoin has stabilized following recent volatility, but continues to trade below its own 180-day moving average, currently near $89,700.

According to the framework outlined in the analysis, a clear rotation signal depends on the divergence between the two assets. Specifically, Bitcoin needs to regain its 180-day trend while gold remains below it. Instead, both assets are now aligned below this crucial threshold, producing what is classified as a negative signal.

This suggests that rather than capital flowing decisively from gold into Bitcoin, both markets are experiencing parallel weakness or consolidation. The model, which is designed as a simplified indicator of broader trend dynamics, indicates that any emerging capital rotation is not present or lacks the strength necessary to significantly affect the direction of Bitcoin’s price at this time.

The analyst also cautioned that such interpretations are based on extrapolation, as it remains difficult to verify whether capital coming out of gold positions is being actively reallocated to Bitcoin markets with a measurable impact.

Divergent opinions arise

That said, not all market participants are completely dismissing the rotation narrative. Some argue that what seems moderate now could evolve into much larger structural change over time. One such view indicates that markets may be underestimating the scale of a potential transition, and if capital eventually shifts from gold to Bitcoin, it could become one of the largest reallocations in history.

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In this scenario, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory could extend significantly further, and projections spot towards levels as high as $800,000 by the end of the decade.

Bitwise previously shared a similar perspective, which highlighted the huge effect that even limited capital turnover from gold could have on Bitcoin. In October 2025, the firm estimated that shifting 3% to 4% of the market away from gold could potentially double BTC’s valuation, while a 2% shift alone could be enough to lift prices above $161,000.