Bitcoin’s short-term momentum has softened following the sharp market decline on October 10. However, on-chain data platform CryptoQuant reports that its long-term structural demand remains strong.
In a report released Friday, the company warned that it is too early to consider the current market a “season-end.” Another research firm, Tiger Research, projected a target of $200,000 for the fourth quarter, citing continued net market buying despite the sharp rise in volatility.
The dolphin cohort: a key indicator of structural demand
CryptoQuant analysts suggest that the next few weeks will be crucial, depending on whether the pace of accumulation accelerates. They characterize the current market as the “late maturity segment” of the ongoing bull trend cycle, rather than a definitive end.
The analysis focuses largely on the ‘dolphin’ cohort, who hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC ($110,261.00) per wallet. This group includes ETFs, corporations and large emerging holders.
The Dolphin Cohort currently holds the largest proportion of Bitcoin supply: approximately 5.16 million BTC, or 26% of the total supply. Historically, changes in Dolphin Cohort holdings have been the most consistent indicator of Bitcoin price momentum.
Accumulation drives the cycle
In 2025, the dolphin cohort was the only group to increase its total balance year over year, adding over 681,000 BTC. In contrast, the other five cohorts experienced net declines in their holdings.
CryptoQuant noted that the annual growth rate of Dolphin assets remains positive, suggesting that the bull cycle is far from over. The cohort’s current annual holdings of 9.07 million BTC exceed the 365-day moving average of 730,000 BTC.
Short-term challenges and price targets
However, the firm warned against complacency. The October 10 crash weakened short-term momentum, requiring a new accumulation phase for Bitcoin to test and break the $126,000 level. For the uptrend to resume and set new all-time highs, the monthly accumulation rate must accelerate again.
CryptoQuant identified $115,000 as short-term resistance and $100,000 as immediate support level, warning that a break below $100,000 could trigger a significant correction to $75,000.
Institutional support fuels optimism
Meanwhile, Tiger Research, which released its own short-term outlook on the same day, offered a more bullish forecast. They argued that the October 10 crisis and subsequent sell-offs provided evidence of the market’s transition from a retail-driven model to an institutionally-led one.
Unlike the late 2021 crash, which sparked widespread panic selling among retail investors, the recent adjustment was limited. Tiger Research stated that institutional investors have continued to buy after the correction, and further institutional entry during the current consolidation phase could lead to a healthy continuation of the bull market.
They projected that the Federal Reserve’s continued rate cuts will be a powerful catalyst for a rally in the fourth quarter, raising their price target to $200,000.
Analysts Set Bitcoin Price Target of $200,000: Is It Realistic for Christmas? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
