Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim the $110,000 level after a sharp move lower put pressure on the markets and triggered fresh volatility across the crypto landscape. While this pullback has been uncomfortable for short-term traders, it remains modest compared to the Oct. 10 sell-off, which forced the removal of excessive leverage and marked one of the most aggressive sell-offs of the year.
Despite the short-term turbulence, Bitcoin remains within its broader consolidation range, but the market now enters a critical phase where the direction must be resolved soon. In the coming weeks, macroeconomic developments, liquidity flows and investor positioning will likely determine whether the next momentum will be bullish or bearish.
Recent data from CryptoQuant shows that since July 1, long-term holders (LTH) have been steadily distributing coins, selling off strongly as BTC approached and then tested all-time highs. This oversupply has contributed to weak bullish momentum, even as demand has proven strong enough to absorb much of the sales.
Bitcoin market still absorbing supply
According to analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin continues to navigate a complex supply-demand atmosphere defined by constant profit taking by long-term holders (LTH). Since July 1, LTHs have distributed approximately 810,000 BTC, reducing their total holdings from 15.5 million to 14.6 million BTC.
This represents one of the most important distribution phases of the current cycle, a clear indication that experienced holders have been reaping profits after years of accumulation and strategic positioning.
What makes this dynamic particularly surprising is that Bitcoin has hit new all-time highs twice during this distribution phase, demonstrating that market demand has remained strong enough to absorb the significant supply being unloaded.
Historically, similar phases of distribution by long-term holders typically accompany major turning points in the cycle, as capital moves from early investors to new entrants entering the market.
Adler emphasizes that while this absorption reflects the strength of the market, it also puts a limit on aggressive bullish momentum. As long as long-term holders continue to take profits, the bullish trajectory is likely to remain gradual and choppy rather than explosively parabolic. Strong demand is supporting prices and preventing deeper corrections, but supply pressure is simultaneously preventing a sustained acceleration of the breakout.
The conclusion is clear: Bitcoin does not lack demand; is working through supply, once the long-term distribution slows (either due to exhaustion or macroeconomic strengthening), the upside potential could expand significantly. Until then, price action may continue to move sideways and bullish attempts will encounter resistance as supply passes to new owners.
Bitcoin stays above the MA key
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $109,900, attempting to stabilize after a recent move lower pushed the price back towards the 200-day moving average (red line), a key long-term support level that currently sits near $108,000.
This region has become an important line of defense for the bulls, structuring the lower limit of Bitcoin’s consolidation range. Every time BTC has approached this zone over the past month, buyers have stepped in, indicating continued demand despite short-term weakness.
However, regaining momentum remains a challenge. BTC continues to struggle below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages, which have converged and now act as layered resistance between $112,000 and $114,000.
A sustained break above this group is required to restore bullish momentum and set up another attempt towards resistance at $117,500, the key cycle checkpoint and the level that has repeatedly capped bullish moves since the summer.
If Bitcoin loses the $108,000 support, a deeper correction towards $105,000-$103,000 is likely, where liquidity and previous reaction levels lie. For now, the technical outlook remains neutral to cautious: bulls hold essential support, but the burden remains on buyers to regain lost moving averages and reverse the market structure in their favor.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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