New York: In pictorial terms, Donald Trump had a 24-hour blockbuster. One moment he was in Busan shaking hands and signing deals with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the next he was back at the White House, handing out Hershey bars to children for Halloween.
That included a couple of babies whose costume (a stroller dressed as McDonald’s) obviously won the heart of the cheeseburger-loving president.
President Donald Trump was handing out Halloween chocolate to children within hours of returning to Washington from Asia.Credit: AP
In his usual style, Trump and his team called their six-day trip to Asia a superlative success. “President Trump remains the world’s greatest negotiator,” the State Department posted on social media. Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury secretary, said his boss “commanded respect around the world like no other leader.”
Whatever Trump did in Malaysia and Japan, the most important thing would always be his meeting with Xi, his first since 2019. At first glance, there was a lot to like about the trade war “truce” between the world’s two largest economies. The long-awaited meeting has apparently provided a year-long respite from the on-again, off-again battle between Trump’s tariffs and Xi’s coercion over rare earth minerals.
It will certainly be good news for US soybean farmers, who depend on Chinese buyers for their livelihood and have been begging Trump to help them. China has now agreed to buy 12 million tons of American soybeans between now and January, and then 25 million a year thereafter.
Caleb Ragland, a ninth-generation farmer whose Kentucky farm visited this town in April, praised the agreement as “a significant step toward reestablishing a stable, long-term business relationship.”
Trump himself rated the meeting a “12” out of 10 and agreed to reduce US tariffs by 10 percent, from a putative total of 57 percent to 47 percent.
But experts say that behind the flashy headlines and photographs, this detente has come at a high price. Xi would be emboldened by the outcome, says Julian Gewirtz, who was senior director for China and Taiwan affairs on Joe Biden’s National Security Council and is now an academic at Columbia University.
“The meeting between President Trump and President Xi has been widely interpreted as a return to the status quo, but unfortunately for the United States it is worse than that,” he says. “The reality is that, although some of the recent escalation has been paused, China has still put its important new weapons on the table. And although it has said it will not use them for a year, we know that the possibility that this temporary truce will not hold for a year is too high.”
The meeting was heralded as cooling the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.Credit: AP
While the meeting wasn’t as bad as it could have been, Gerwitz says, “much of the world will be reinforced in its view that China is winning this US-China showdown, and that the United States has not demonstrated that it has a coherent China strategy.”
Trump’s strategy with Beijing – as with the rest of the world – has effectively been to bet that the size and power of the American market is so great that other countries will be forced to give in to American demands to avoid tariffs and continue selling as cheaply as possible to the American consumer.
Overall, it has worked. Even if many of Trump’s “deals” around the world have involved vague promises of long-term investment – or repackaging existing efforts as new commitments – world leaders have generally been eager to sign a deal with Trump and claim a victory for their own constituents, just as Trump does.
Even Australia played this game by relaxing rules on importing American beef products and signing a critical minerals deal at the White House last week.
But in China, Trump faces a great power with comparable — perhaps even greater — influence. As the gatekeeper in charge of 90 percent of the world’s critical mineral processing, Beijing knows it “holds the cards,” to use one of Trump’s favorite expressions. The rapid disappearance of its 145 percent tariff on Chinese goods earlier this year, which it quickly admitted was unsustainable, is a testament to that reality.
Trump has enjoyed a positive streak on the international stage. At home, he could soon preside over the longest government shutdown in American history.Credit: AP
One of Trump’s apparent achievements in Busan was a one-year delay in the sweeping restrictions on rare earth exports announced by China in the run-up to the meeting, which most analysts saw as a bargaining chip. Wendy Cutler, senior vice president at the Asian Society Policy Institute in Washington, said Beijing will likely continue to use the threat as “a hammer over America’s head,” making Trump’s tariff threats less credible.
“The announced results do little to resolve the underlying structural problems that are at the heart of our bilateral economic tensions, including overcapacity, excessive subsidies and unfair trade practices. As such, this truce may be short-lived,” Cutler said.
“Unlike the ‘phase one’ trade deal concluded during Trump’s first term, this time Beijing negotiated hard, insisting on being paid for every concession it made, particularly when it came to reducing tariffs and eliminating shipping fees.
“This is in stark contrast to the other trade deals Trump has signed in recent days, which were heavily tilted in favor of the United States. Trump has met his match with China, which has shown that two can play in this game.”
Trump intends to travel to China for another meeting with Xi in April and welcome the Chinese leader to the United States sometime after that. He remains confident that he can reach a final trade agreement.
For Australia, the meeting between Trump and Xi – as well as Albanese’s successful meeting last week – should expel any notion that Trump is a China “hawk” who will look down on Canberra for cultivating a better relationship with Beijing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping leaves the meeting in Busan, South Korea, in his presidential limousine.Credit: fake images
Gewirtz says there is a persistent view among some in Washington that because the first Trump administration helped foster a bipartisan appreciation of China’s threats to American interests – such as its military development, technological prowess and dominance over rare earths – Trump’s second term would continue in that vein.
But it has been markedly different, in part because — as the Asian Group’s Mira Rapp-Hooper wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine this week — policy is no longer being coordinated by a whole-of-government approach led by the National Security Council but by a small cabal headed by Trump.
“The reality is that in this term, in all areas, Trump has done what he said he was going to do, [including] seek a “big, beautiful deal” with China. And he has made clear time and time again throughout 2025 that his priority is to reach an agreement,” says Gewirtz.
“From Beijing’s perspective, they have seen this spectacle before and, I think, are preparing for any moment when this truce is no longer the order of the day.”
That day may come sooner rather than later. Trump’s dealings with China, like his presidency in general, are characterized by sudden and severe shifts in opinion. This is likely to be, in wartime parlance, a ceasefire, not a permanent peace.
