The second part of the year has seen a notable rise in the US stock market, while Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market have faced their share of uncertainty and significant corrections.
With the Nasdaq recently surpassing the 26,000 mark, top analysts are now suggesting that this milestone could be a clear indicator for Bitcoin to end the year at new highs.
What historical patterns indicate
According According to The Bull Theory experts, the pattern seen when the Nasdaq hits all-time highs typically suggests a flow of liquidity, increased risk appetite, and a shift of capital into growth assets. As this phase unfolds, it often sets the stage for Bitcoin’s next significant move.
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Data collected by analysts supports this claim. Historically, in the first 30 days following a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of about 7%. This performance tends to grow, reaching around 14% in 60 days and rising to an average of 25% at 90 days.
This pattern is not simply a coincidence; It reflects a rotation of capital where liquidity does not disappear but rather moves from traditional markets to higher risk assets such as Bitcoin.
The current situation appears to follow a similar trajectory. The Nasdaq’s rise to 26,000 indicates a wave of liquidity building beneath the surface. With rate cuts As quantitative tightening begins and comes to an end, global capital is once again seeking yield.
This scenario reflects the conditions that contributed to major Bitcoin breakouts in previous years, particularly in 2017, 2020, and 2023.
As such, analysts note that the next four or five months may represent a acceleration phase for Bitcoin, coinciding with a possible pause in stocks, which could lead to cryptocurrencies becoming the main outlet for liquidity.
Bitcoin is primed for a breakout similar to the 2020-2021 cycle
Analysts like Ash Crypto too noted on social media that the BTC/NASDAQ weekly chart reveals a repeating pattern reminiscent of the 2020-2021 cycle, during which Bitcoin significantly outperformed traditional tech stocks. In both cycles, the period from October to March has historically caused significant upward movements.
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After a period of consolidation within a rising wedge, the BTC/NASDAQ pair appears poised for another breakout. If this pattern repeats itself, Bitcoin could post substantial gains versus the Nasdaq in the fourth quarter and early 2026, Ash Crypto noted.
Notably, this sets the stage for a major rally that could see Bitcoin prices surpass current records of over $126,000. However, the market is still characterized by an increase volatilityand there is no clear path forward for BTC.
The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $113,350 after a 2% correction in the trading session on Tuesday, following an initial rise above $115,000. This puts BTC 6.5% below all-time highs.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
