Possible double top formation
Bitcoin price has been on a rollercoaster ride, driven by mixed signals from US economic data. Last week, CPI figures were weaker than expected pushed Bitcoin Price Hits New All-Time High, But Markets Move Fast invested after the PPI posted its biggest rise since 2022. This reignited concerns that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates unchanged for longer.
This volatility caused Bitcoin to fall below its four-month ascending support line (green line) and at the same time form a second peak in what appears to be a possible double top pattern (cyan lines). The key level to look at here is $112,000. If Bitcoin decisively breaks below this support, the Double Top formation points to a possible price target nearby $101,000since the price target for this pattern is usually calculated by measuring its height.
However, if buyers manage to defend the $112,000 level, the correction could be delayed or the Double Top pattern invalidated completely. For that to happen, Bitcoin would likely need a strong bullish catalyst, and one key event stands out as a potential market driver: Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 22, which could ultimately determine whether this pattern holds or breaks.
Your comments can also shape the outlook for the rest of 2025. If it signals that rate cuts will return in September and that there will be more cuts, markets are likely to recover across the board. A neutral “watch the data” stance would keep rate cut hopes alive and leave markets building pressure for a bigger move soon. But if Powell firmly rejects the cuts, cryptocurrencies and markets in general could face further selling.
Waning Bullish Momentum
Still, even if Powell’s comments prove favorable for crypto markets, Bitcoin may struggle to reclaim new all-time highs without stronger trading momentum.
Since March, Bitcoin price has followed a familiar setup: consolidation phases (cyan lines) followed by bullish breakouts. Still each breakout produced a smaller bullish extension – peaking at the 3.414 Fibonacci level in May, the 2.414 level in July, and only the 2 level during the most recent all-time high. This pattern highlights a gradual loss of bullish momentum.
Daily RSI and MACD readings reinforce this view, with both indicators forming lower highs (green lines). Overall, while Bitcoin still retains upside potential, the scope for further gains appears increasingly limited.
A major factor behind its weaker performance has been declining market volume. Over the past three months, daily Bitcoin futures volume fell 21%, while spot volume fell 22%. This lower market activity has made each rally less sustainable, limiting the strength of bullish moves and amplifying downside risks when sellers intervene.
RHODL Bearish Momentum Could Delay a Rally
In 2024-2025, RHODL momentum has been making lower highs (black line) and is already in bearish territory. This indicates that long-term holders are making smaller relative gains with each rally.
This setup is unusual: in previous cycles, bearish readings appeared primarily during bear markets and only turned positive after months of consolidation. He The current divergence points to three possible paths.:
- A quiet accumulation phase that sets the stage for a larger, delayed breakout.
- Transition to a long stretch of modest and overwhelming rise.
- A deeper correction similar to the post-2021 bear market.
Which outcome occurs will depend on how quickly RHODL’s momentum recovers: a quick rebound would favor the “breakthrough” scenario, while a prolonged decline would support the narrative of a slow process or a deeper correction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s next decisive move will largely depend on Powell’s comments, volume recovery, and whether momentum for long-term holders can recover. A sustained defense of $112,000 could keep bullish hopes alive, but the weakening market structure increases the odds of a prolonged consolidation. External forecasts reflect this uncertainty; For example, Coinpedia BTC Price Prediction targets both scenarios, with the 2025 price target currently ranging between $72,000 and $168,000.
