Bitcoin was hovering around $100,000 on Thursday, October 23, when Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, warned that a move below $100,000 this weekend “seems inevitable,” while adding that any breakout could be fleeting the last time Bitcoin was below six figures. The comments, delivered in a note to the client mid-week and shared from The Block, frame a tactical retreat within a still intact bullish macro thesis that the bank has defended for months.
Bitcoin’s Latest Drop Below $100,000 Ahead
Kendrick’s message juxtaposes short-term caution with longer-term conviction. In the same research cycle in which Standard Chartered reiterated a target of $200,000 by the end of the year (depending on ETF demand, corporate treasury raising and a friendlier political backdrop), the strategist has now signaled an air pocket towards sub-$100,000 as the market digests the October sell-off and a tepid rebound. “A drop below $100,000 now appears ‘inevitable,'” Kendrick said on Wednesday, while emphasizing that any drop should be short-lived and likely the “last opportunity to buy BTC for under six figures.”
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The recalibration follows a swing in early October in which Bitcoin failed to hold above its recent local high (Kendrick cited the Oct. 10 risk aversion breakout and lack of a strong reflex rally), shifting the bank’s focus to where the market bottoms rather than whether it immediately resumes trending.
In the latest note, Kendrick pointed to a handful of signs for a base-building phase, including monitoring capital rotation between gold and bitcoin and the trajectory of US dollar liquidity and quantitative tightening. He also noted that bitcoin has respected its 50-week moving average since early 2023, a level he sees as an important longer line in the sand.
Short-term crosscurrents complicate, but do not alter, Standard Chartered’s cycle map. As recently as July 2, the bank told clients it expected the biggest dollar rally on record in the second half of 2025, with bitcoin at $200,000 by December 31. That framework – ETF inflows, corporate balance sheet adoption and regulatory normalization as the dominant drivers – remains at the core of Kendrick’s positive case, even as he admits that a brief trip below $100,000 is now likely. “The drop could mark the last time BTC will be purchased for six figures,” the latest dispatch emphasized.
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The market context is aligned with the cautious tone in the short term. Over the past two weeks, bitcoin has lost approximately ten percent, and today is trading spot around $108,000 as liquidity dwindles over the weekend and macro sensitivity to political headlines remains elevated.
What matters from here is whether the confirming signs that Kendrick highlighted begin to align. A decisive improvement in dollar liquidity conditions, sustained evidence of a rotation towards bitcoin at the expense of gold, and the preservation of higher time frame trend structures would validate the “last time below $100,000” claim.
Without them, a deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, but that scenario would represent a deviation from the bank’s published roadmap rather than its base case. For now, Standard Chartered’s message is unequivocal: prepare for a sub-six-figure drop, but treat it (quoting Kendrick directly) as “the last chance to buy BTC for sub-six figures,” provided medium-term catalysts firm up.
At the time of publication, BTC was trading at $109,953.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
