Has Bitcoin (BTC) already bottomed in this cycle?

Most of the responses we received were quite promising for BTC. Here is the most interesting part.

Bitcoin price plummeted from its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000 to $60,000 in early February, recording a massive 52% drop. This placed the asset in bear market territory, at least according to most analysts, many of whom began to outline even more painful declines for BTC.

The situation worsened when Israel and the United States engaged in direct military conflict last week against Iran, and the cryptocurrency quickly fell to its local lows. However, it reversed its trajectory in the following days and shot up to a monthly high of $74,000.

Although it failed there, it is still trading at around $70,000 as of now, which is more than 15% higher than its early February low. The question we decided to ask Gemini and ChatGPT is whether they think BTC has already bottomed during this cycle.

Down in?

ChatGPT began by admitting that a drop of more than 50% is “very normal for Bitcoin bull cycle corrections” and does not necessarily mean that the asset is in a deep bear market phase. In fact, he noted that the $60,000 low “fits historically as a typical mid-cycle shakeout.”

He put the odds of the bottom at 45%, which would mean the early February drop was the “last wave of capitulation.” Some of the reasons supporting this narrative include the completion of a 50% correction, improvements in liquidity and overall sentiment, and an increase in strong buyers at those levels.

If this were indeed the bottom of BTC, the next stages would be a rise to $90,000 before breaking the psychological level of $100,000. Then comes the “parabolic phase.” His bold prediction in this case would be a massive run to a new all-time high between $180,000 and $220,000 this year.

Gemini also largely agreed that the bottom could be bottoming, suggesting that there have already been some drops in leverage, adding:

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“During that February low, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators and its distance from its 200-day moving average reached oversold levels we haven’t seen since the 2022 bear market or the FTX crash. The selling pressure simply dried up.”

Bottomless, not yet

Although both AIs suggested that the most likely scenarios are that BTC has already bottomed, they left the door open for another correction, especially if the macro situation worsens.

Gemini said investors have been abandoning speculative technology stocks, lingering concerns about inflation and geopolitical tension mean the broader institutional appetite for risk assets “is currently unstable.”

ChatGPT gave a 20% chance of a “one last brutal surge” scenario, in which the bears would regain control of the market and drive the leading cryptocurrency to new lows of between $48,000 and $52,000. However, he noted that there is a very slight chance of an extreme panic reaching $42,000, but “such a move would likely be very short-lived.”