Bitcoin price remains in a fragile phase in its broader market structure, alternating between recovery attempts and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. Structurally, the market is in a state of transition, as it abandons euphoric expansion but has not yet fully capitulated.
Ultimately, the current price action reflects a tug-of-war between long-term conviction holders and short-term speculative flows. However, on-chain data suggests that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to embark on further downward journeys.
CVDD: Bitcoin Compass Hits Lows Since 2012
In a recent post about Platform X, market analyst Ali Martinez revealed That Accumulated Value – Days Destroyed (CVDD) has identified the bottom of Bitcoin since 2012. According to the crypto expert, the metric is one of the most respected long-term on-chain indicators for identifying structural lows, and its current value is $45,225.
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Launched by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, CVDD is a long-term Bitcoin valuation metric designed to identify major market lows by analyzing the behavior of long-term holders. To understand CVDD, you need to recognize Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).
CDD is each accumulated Bitcoin that remains immovable in a wallet. Now, CVDD tracks the accumulated historical value of coin days destroyed and fits it into a valuation model to produce a price level that historically aligns with the bottom of Bitcoin’s main cycle.
Since 2012, CVDD has consistently marked major Bitcoin price lows with remarkable accuracy. Basically, the model measures when older, long-preserved coins are spent. Because long-term holders tend to distribute near cycle highs and accumulate during deep bearish phases.
Is Bitcoin on a hidden safety net?
Over time, the CVDD has acted as a floor below the price during sharp drawdowns. In past cycles, including the 2015 bear market bottom, 2018 capitulation, and 2022 sell-off, Bitcoin price often approached or briefly fell below the CVDD line before making long-term recoveries.
CVDD currently sits at $45,225, a level that represents what many would consider a deep value zone within the current market structure. It does not necessarily imply that the price should fall to this level, but rather that it serves as historically significant structural support if overall market conditions deteriorate further..
When BTC trades comfortably above CVDD, it typically indicates that the market remains in a healthier macro position. Meanwhile, when Bitcoin price compresses towards that level, sentiment often turns bearish and long-term accumulation tends to intensify.
As Bitcoin consolidates within its current range, it could be useful to monitor whether the price remains a sufficient distance above the CVDD level of $45,225. A decisive move towards it could indicate deeper corrective pressure, while sustained strength above that level reinforces the argument that the broader cycle remains structurally intact.
At the time of writing, BTC is valued at around $70,000, reflecting a modest price increase of almost 2% in the last day.
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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
