Bitcoin has fallen roughly 44% since its October peak, and while the drop is not the deepest for cryptocurrencies in percentage terms, Bloomberg’s Odd Lots newsletter makes the case that this is the industry’s worst winter yet. The macroeconomic context was supposed to favor Bitcoin: public confidence in the dollar is shaky, the Trump administration has been pro-cryptocurrency, and fiat currencies are under perceived stress globally. However, gold, not Bitcoin, has been the safe haven of choice.
The “we’re so early” narrative is dead: crypto ETFs exist, barriers to entry are zero, and the online community that once brought holders together during crises has largely emptied. Institutional adoption has arrived but has not eliminated existing tokens like ETH or SOL; Wall Street cares about stablecoins and tokenization, not the coins themselves. AI is attracting both talent and miners to data centers. Advances in quantum computing threaten Bitcoin encryption. And MicroStrategy and other Bitcoin treasury companies, once consistent buyers during the bull run, are now large holders who may eventually become forced sellers.
