By Barry Rosen www.appliedvedicastrology.com
GEOPOLITICAL AND WAR CYCLES
The United States appears increasingly committed to a slow lockdown strategy rather than rapid escalation. In our monthly video magazine, we emphasize that the Saturn-Neptune conjunction that will peak on February 20 marks a critical phase of global realignment. This unusual alignment is historically correlated with the dissolution of long-standing institutions, financial instability, debt crises, and the collapse of idealized political narratives, patterns that this cycle precisely follows.
Iran now appears to be the most immediate geopolitical flashpoint: US naval assets are amassing in the region and European allies are increasingly denouncing Iran’s political apparatus as a terrorist organization. At the same time, time is quickly running out for any meaningful peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. It is increasingly difficult to imagine President Zelensky seeking a deal under current conditions. A possible diplomatic opening may not emerge until the next Jupiter-Venus conjunction on June 1, 2026, when Jupiter enters Cancer.
The global realignment cycle peaks around February 20 and it has been fascinating to watch the rapid reshuffling of the geopolitical chessboard. We continue to see increasing signs that the United States could withdraw from NATO in the coming months, although February’s Saturn-Neptune peak may still be too early for full execution. Meanwhile, India remains a strategic wild card, facing increasing pressure to cut purchases of Russian oil while quietly recalibrating its alliances.
Unfortunately, Europe seems increasingly committed to confrontation with Russia. Several cycles point to a higher risk of war in February. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been working to prevent Slovakia and a handful of other allies from supporting increased military financing and war loans backed by the EU, reflecting growing internal fractures within Europe.
The main war risk window in February 2026 centers on a convergence of volatile firms:
- Mars square Uranus (late February)
- Saturn conjunct Neptune (February 20)
- Solar eclipse (February 17)
CHINA, RUSSIA AND LONG-TERM ASTROLOGICAL RISK
Current cycles suggest that a conflict between the United States and China remains more likely than a direct war with Russia in the medium term. A cautious detente with Russia appears to be developing, as China continues to project force through naval blockade exercises around Taiwan.
Rahu’s transit into China’s Capricorn ascendant in November 2026 will further inflame ambitions for global dominance and territorial expansion. This is followed by Saturn’s entry into Aries in June 2027, where Saturn weakens in the sign of aggression. In particular, a significant portion of World War II took place with Saturn in Aries, a sobering historical parallel.
PLANETARY HIGHLIGHTS FOR FEBRUARY 2026 (SIDERAL)
Mercury enters Aquarius – February 3
Mercury square Uranus – February 5
Venus square Uranus – February 8
Mercury conjunct Rahu (true node) – February 12
Sun square Uranus – February 16
Solar eclipse at 5° Aquarius – February 17
Pluto in Shravana (Capricorn 10°–23°30′) Saturn conjunct Neptune — February 20
Mars enters Aquarius – February 23
Mercury retrograde in Aquarius: from February 26 to March 20
Mars square Uranus – end of February
Sun conjunct Rahu – February 27
Mercury conjunct Venus – February 28
February 2026 offers a potent concentration of Aquarius sidereal transits, signaling innovation, disruption and structural resets amid rising global tensions. Aquarius governs collective movements, technology and humanitarian ideals. Rahu’s current transit through Aquarius continues to correlate with civil unrest, riots, and confrontations over government authority, particularly around immigration and state power.
The annular solar eclipse on February 17 represents a critical energy pivot with effects that will extend over the next six months. While eclipses are most intense where they are physically visible (including parts of South Africa, Chile and Argentina), their influence is global. Jupiter’s trine from Gemini to Aquarius offers some mitigating influence, helping disruptions manifest more constructively, although volatility remains high.
INTERRUPTIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH: MERCURY, VENUS AND URANUS
Mercury’s entry into Aquarius on February 3 sparks innovative thinking, but immediately clashes with Uranus via a square on February 5. Venus follows with her own square to Uranus on February 8. Historically, Venus-Uranus squares typically coincide with market pullback lows, particularly in precious metals, assuming key technical levels are reached.
From a mundane perspective, these air sign clashes cause sudden policy changes, technological failures, and social media-driven riots. Financially, Uranus aspects often trigger sudden drop behavior in high-beta cryptocurrency, AI, and technology stocks. Traders should be prepared for strong volatility and favor defensive positions.
Mercury conjunct Rahu on February 12 intensifies obsessive trading behavior, misinformation, and emotionally driven sell-offs, particularly in emerging markets and speculative assets.
PEAK OF THE ECLIPSE: TECHNOLOGY, POWER AND VOLATILITY
The solar eclipse at 5° Aquarius on February 17, with square Uranus, marks an important turning point for collective social consciousness. Aquarius eclipses are often correlated with technological advances or breakdowns. Rahu’s influence amplifies tamasic and destabilizing energies, while Pluto in Shravana exposes corruption within entrenched institutions; Let’s hope that fraud continues to be discovered in Minnesota, Ohio and California.
Expect increased risks from cyber disruptions, regulatory action against big tech companies, AI-related scandals, and infrastructure failures. Financially, this eclipse poses an elevated risk for the Nasdaq and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin vulnerable to declines towards the 70,000 level. The Sun’s conjunction with Rahu on February 27 reinforces the themes of leadership instability and sudden changes in power.
STRUCTURAL CHANGES: SATURN-NEPTUNE AND MARS
The Saturn-Neptune conjunction on February 20 represents a classic “great reset” signature: dissolving illusions around governance, borders, and alliances. We have discussed this global reorganization of the chess board for over a year and it is now fully developing.
India continues to move away from alignment with the United States and toward Russia and China, while the United States increasingly signals its withdrawal from NATO and Ukraine in an effort to avoid a nuclear escalation. Iran remains under increasing international isolation and US naval deployments against Iran reflect increasing risks.
Mars’s entry into Aquarius on February 23, followed by its square to Uranus, fuels aggressive reforms, protests, and military escalation. Mercury retrograde from February 26 to March 20 keeps Mercury in the same sign as Mars, extending the war of words, media battles and diplomatic tension. Additional conjunctions between Mars and Mercury on March 15 and April 20 suggest a prolonged rhetorical and ideological conflict.
Given these dynamics, defense sector ETFs like XAR remain attractive hedges as broader equity markets approach cyclical highs.
STOCK MARKET AND FINANCIAL CYCLES
The S&P 500 continues to show signs of peaking and fatigue. The Nasdaq-100 peaked in October and has failed to confirm new highs. Recent geopolitical threats towards Iran triggered fresh downward pressure, but a formal technical high remains unconfirmed until S&P cash clears 6,789 and Nasdaq 100 futures rises above 25,000.
January has long been projected to be a cyclical high, and current issues such as war risk, geopolitical instability, and earth shift are strong arguments against sustained new highs. Japan’s interest rate vulnerability and global realignment risks increase downward pressure.
Among the Magnificent Seven, only Google and Apple have posted gains since August, a worrying sign for Nasdaq’s leadership. Microsoft’s disappointing AI capex guidance and Tesla’s post-earnings weakness further reinforce the end-of-cycle dynamics.
We continue to project a decline between February and April, with downside targets near 5,600 in S&P cash.
NEXT MAJOR MARKET LOWER
A major cyclical low continues to be projected for April 2026, coinciding with the weakening of Mercury in Pisces from April 10-29, along with Mars. Historically, this combination correlates with declines in stocks, cryptocurrencies, and speculative assets. A recovery in June will not reach new highs and this summer’s tensions will lead to weakness and a possible drop to 3,650 points in the S&P 500 in November.
SECTOR PERSPECTIVES
Energy and crude oil Crude oil has rallied on war tensions, closing above key resistance and heading towards 90-92. While inflationary, this favors energy stocks and ETFs like XLE, XOP, and USO.
Interest rates Saturn-Neptune signals continued financial instability. Short-term cycles favor a search for quality bonds and potentially lower rates from February to May, although longer-term pressure remains bullish through 2026-2027.
Rails Gold and silver have exceeded expectations. Long-term cycles support silver towards 148-155 this year and gold towards 10,800 by 2028. Despite extreme volatility, including the recent sharp decline in silver, we continue to favor metals as long-term holdings. Updated schedules are provided daily in our Fortucast newsletter.
Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin remains vulnerable, with downside targets near 70,000 in April. Cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to the Mercury and Neptune cycles, making the April weakening period critical. Long-term bullish targets near 225,000 remain consistent with post-halving cycles.
STAY CONNECTED
This is a monthly update. X events occur every day and February is the most volatile month of the year.
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