The warning comes at the last minute. Emissions Gap Report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), issued on Tuesday before the COP30 climate conference which opens in Belém, Brazil, next week.
It has been almost a decade since world leaders adopted the Paris Agreementwhose objective is to keep the increase in global average temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and preferably to a threshold of 1.5°C.
Climate action plans
Countries outline their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming through action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)which occur every five years.
The third round covers the period until 2035, and only 60 parties, less than a third, submitted new NDCs by the end of September.
He report reveals that global warming projections for this century, based on full implementation of the NDC, are now between 2.3 and 2.5°C, compared to 2.6 and 2.8°C in last year’s edition.
Those based on current policies are 2.8°C, compared to 3.1°C last year.
missing the target
UNEP noted, however, that the methodological updates represent 0.1°C of the improvement, while the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, “which means that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle.”
As a result, nations remain far from achieving the goals of the landmark treaty. Therefore, annual emissions reductions of 35% and 55%, compared to 2019 levels, are needed in 2035 to align with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets.
The report concludes that the average increase in global temperature over several decades will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, which will be difficult to reverse.
“While national climate plans have made some progress, they are not fast enough, which is why We still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight timeframe and with an increasingly challenging geopolitical context.”said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
“But it’s still simply possible. There are already proven solutions,” he added.
“We know what to do”
The report calls for faster and greater emissions reductions to continue returning to 1.5°C by 2100, if possible.
“Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces an escalation of harm, loss and health impacts that are harming all nations. – while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable hardest – and reducing the risks of climate tipping points and other irreversible impacts,” UNEP said.
The agency insisted that the international community can accelerate climate action, if it so wishes.
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, temperature predictions have fallen by 3 to 3.5°C. Additionally, there are technologies available to achieve large emissions reductions, such as wind and solar energy.
“From the rapid growth of cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done,” Ms Anderson said.
“Now is the time for countries to pull out all the stops and invest in their future with ambitious climate actions – actions that deliver faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.”
Accelerate action now: Guterres
United Nations Secretary General António Guterres described the report as “clear and uncompromising” and urged countries to “intensify and accelerate” efforts to reach the 1.5 degrees goal by the end of the century.
“Our mission is simple, but not easy: to make any excess as small and brief as possible,” he said in a video message.
“That means peaking global emissions immediately; achieving much deeper emissions reductions this decade; dramatically reducing methane; accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy; and protecting forests and oceans, our carbon sinks.”
He noted that “clean energy is now the cheapest source of electricity in most markets and the fastest to deploy” and called on leaders to “seize this moment and waste no time” to increase access to renewable energy.
“The path to 1.5 degrees is narrow, but open,” he said. “Let us accelerate to keep that path alive for people, the planet and our common future.”
